Global Market Quick Take: Europe – November 3 2023 Global Market Quick Take: Europe – November 3 2023 Global Market Quick Take: Europe – November 3 2023

Global Market Quick Take: Europe – November 3 2023

Macro 3 minutes to read
Saxo Strategy Team

Summary:  European stock futures trade higher while the rally in US stocks paused after Apple reported its results. Risk sentiment was given a major boost this week with the dollar trading softer and US Treasury yields slumping on growing speculation the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle is nearing an end. Traders are turning their attention to today’s US nonfarm payroll data with surveys looking for the pace of hiring to more than half compared with Septembers strong gain. Elsewhere both crude oil and gold are heading for a weekly loss as Israel war remains contained and on profit taking.

The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.

Equities: The ‘peak rates’ message from Powell on Wednesday lifted S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 yesterday adding 1.9% and 1.7% respectively as the 10-year yield declined further. The gains were broad-based with all 11 sectors gaining, led by energy, real estate and financials. Tesla rallied 6% as the potential for lower interest rates is seen as boosting future demand. Starbucks soared 10% on upbeat sales forecasts. In the extended hours, Apple shares dropped 3% despite reporting revenue in line with estimates and earnings beat, as the revenue outlook for the current quarter at no change from last year is significantly lower than the 5% estimated by analysts.

FX: The dollar weakened against most currencies as Treasury yields continued to retreat following Wednesdays FOMC potential peak rate message. The Bloomberg Dollar Index trades down 0.5% on the week with gains being led by KRW, CHF, AUD and the euro, which trades back above 1.06 thereby staying within its established uptrend from the October 4 low. GBPUSD rose by about 0.3% to 1.22 after the BoE left policy rates unchanged. Lower US yields have weakened USDJPY to near 150 thereby leaving recently established longs stranded, so watch a potential break below 149.80 for further downside action.

Commodities: The sector trades near unchanged following a mixed weeks that has seen losses in energy, precious metals and grains being offset by gains in softs and not least industrial metals. Crude oil is heading for a second weekly drop as the Israel war remains contained while demand is weakening, gold is consolidating following last month's 200-dollar rally but with dollar weakness and lower US Treasury yields providing support. Copper heading for its highest close in four weeks, supported by falling stockpiles and China support measures.

Fixed income: bonds continued to rally yesterday as the Bank of England delivered a pause and the market positions for upcoming rate cuts in August 2024. However, the US yield curve twist flattened as two-year yield jumped back to around 5% from 4.91%, and 10-year yields continued to drop as low as 4.62%.  Today's focus is on the nonfarm payrolls. If they beat expectations on the downside, they could provoke a considerable drop in yields. If ten-year yields break and close below 4.51%, they will enter a downtrend that could take them to 4%.

Volatility: Volatility kept dropping yesterday, ending the VIX at $15.66, down -1.21 (-7.17%), sending stocks to rally. The VIX’s own volatility index, the VVIX, also continues to decline, ending at 83.24, down -1.84 (-2.16%). For the time being, it seems it’s risk-on. S&P 500 & Nasdaq rose 1.89% and 1.74% respectively. Short-term SPX option prices (0DTE and 3DTE) suggest that the market may be pausing after four consecutive green days, as put options at various strikes are two or more times more expensive than equidistant call options. This indicates that the market is less willing to pay for calls and more for puts, suggesting that a short-term pullback may be imminent. VIX futures are up marginally at 16.65 (+0.095), S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures down -0.08% and -0.28% respectively.

Technical analysis highlights: S&P 500 strong rebound, strong resistance at 4,400 but could run out of steam before. Nasdaq 100 above resistance at 14,781. DAX  resistance at 15,280. USDJPY could be range bound bound 152-148.80. Gold uptrend but expect correction possibly to 1,935. US 10-year T-yields bearish testing 4.60, Key support at 4.50

Macro: The Bank of England left rates unchanged at 5.25% as widely expected while keeping the wording of “monetary policy will need to be sufficiently restrictive for sufficiently long to return inflation to the 2% target sustainably in the medium term” with Governor Bailey saying that “it is much too early to be thinking about rate cuts” and the BoE “will be watching closely to see if further rate increases are needed.” GBPUSD bounced on the news despite UK Gilt yields retreated. The 10-year UK Gilt yield finished the session 12bps lower at 4.38%. US initial jobless claims rose to 217k from 212k the prior week versus the expectation of 210k. US unit labor costs decreased by 0.8% in Q3, versus the median forecast of +0.3% and sharply lower than the +3.2% in the prior quarter.

In the news: Sam Bankman-Fried found guilty in FTX crypto fraud case (CBSNews), BMW Q3 margins beat estimates on rising EV sales (Bloomberg), BlackRock says investors should set expectations for long-term interest rates at 5.5% (FT), BOJ plans to exit from easy policy next year but needs some good fortune (Reuters)

Macro events (all times are GMT):  UK Services PMI (Oct) exp 49.2 vs 49.2 prior (0930), US nonfarm payroll (Oct) exp 180k vs 336k prior, Unemployment rate at 3.8% vs 3.8% prior

Earnings events: Key earnings releases today come from Enbridge, Maersk, Societe Generale, BMW, Vonovia, and Intesa Sanpaolo. Our main focus is on Maersk expected to report before European markets open with analysts expecting revenue growth of -45% y/y driven by lower container freight rates and EBITDA $1.9bn down from $10.8bn.

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (
Full disclaimer (

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38

Contact Saxo

Select region


All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law. 

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.