Global Market Quick Take: Asia – March 25, 2024

Global Market Quick Take: Asia – March 25, 2024

Macro 6 minutes to read
Saxo Be Invested
APAC Research

Summary:  Last week, a dovish FOMC led to the 10-year Treasury yield trimming 11 bps, reaching 4.20%. The PCE inflation data release this Friday may shape yield trends. The DXY index surged above 104.30, its highest in a month, while the Chinese yuan weakened notably, surpassing 7.27 against the dollar. Commodities faced pressure amid dollar strength and renewed China concerns. Copper declined by nearly 3%. Japan's Nikkei 225 hit a record high at 40,888 after the Bank of Japan's anticipated policy adjustments. Nasdaq 100 rose 0.1%, boosted by Nvidia and Alphabet gains. Meituan's Q4 earnings surpassed expectations, with its New York ADS closing 4.2% higher than in Hong Kong.


The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events. 

Equities: Last week, the FOMC took a relatively dovish stance, maintaining the projection of three rate cuts in 2024, and Chair Powell downplayed the recent uptick in inflation data, hinting at a potential slowdown in the balance-sheet run-off. These developments were bullish for US equities, leading to a rally in the S&P500 on Wednesday. However, the momentum somewhat stalled on Thursday and Friday, with the S&P 500 modestly pulling back by 0.1% on Friday. This decline was driven by Nike's 6.9% fall and Lululemon's 15% decline, as both retailers released a downbeat outlook. In contrast, the Nasdaq 100 added 0.1%, buoyed by Nvidia's 3.1% gain and Alphabet's 2.2% increase.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 reached another record high, closing at 40,888 after the Bank of Japan delivered expected policy shifts during the week, removing one of the key uncertainties. Investors turned their focus towards the regaining of corporate pricing power amid the return of inflation, corporate governance reform, and reshoring, particularly in the technology sector from China, which may benefit Japan. The Nikkei 225 index gained 0.2% on Friday and 3.7% for the week.

In China and Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index and CSI300 dropped by 2.2% and 1.0% respectively due to earnings downgrades, coupled with the renminbi's weakness. Li Auto's stock plunged by 10.9% on Friday and 18.3% for the week after lowering its delivery forecast. Bilibili fell by 9.4% amid Alibaba's decreased holdings. After the Hong Kong market closed on Friday, Meituan reported Q4 earnings that beat expectations, with revenue in line. Its ADS closed in New York 4.2% higher than the Hong Kong closing level. Investors turned cautious ahead of upcoming earnings reports from BYD, China Telecom and Anta Sports on Tuesday and major state-owned banks during the week.

The renminbi's sharp depreciation added to weakness in Chinese and Hong Kong equities, with USDCNH rising by 0.8% to 7.2761. Investors expect China's tolerance for a weaker renminbi amid a slow economic recovery, potentially testing September's high of 7.3682. The possibility of a "Trump presidency 2.0" boosted medium-term prospects for USDCNH. For further discussion on the implications of the US election on Chinese equities and USDCNH, see this Saxo article from last week.

FX: The dollar strength extended further on Friday, with the DXY index back above 104.30 to its highest levels in over a month. The Chinese yuan saw notable weakness and USDCNH rose sharply above 7.27 to its highest levels since November, with PBoC setting a weak fix and signaling that authorities are wiling to tolerate some yuan depreciation. AUDUSD dropped 40pips as well, slipping from 0.6570 and now trades below 0.6520. EURUSD also testing the 1.08 handle with the SNB surprise rate cut prompting wagers to increase bets for ECB easing for June. EURCHF eased from highs of 0.9788 to settle around the 0.967 handle although USDCHF settled just below the 0.90 handle. GBPUSD back below 1.2650 after BoE governor Bailey said rate cuts are in play at future BoE meetings amid signs that tighter policy quelled the risk of a wage-price spiral.

Commodities: Commodities came under pressure with dollar strength extending, and China optimism also coming back under the radar. Copper was down nearly 3% for the week, although Iron ore’s Friday decline could not reverse the weekly gains completely. China’s property earnings this week will be the focus for industrial metals to extend gains. Gold also reversed from the all-time highs of $2,220 to test the $2,160 support with Fed’s Bostic moving his expectations to expect only one rate cut this year. Crude oil prices were largely unchanged last week as signs of tightness in the global crude market offset the impact of a stronger USD, but focus remains on sanction and geopolitical risks.

Fixed income: A dovish FOMC led to the 10-year Treasury yield trimming 11 bps last week and 7 bps on Friday alone, closing at a low point of 4.20%, precisely on its 200-day moving average. A break below appears probable before the release of PCE inflation data this Friday, which will likely determine the yield's direction entering Q2.

Macro:

  • At the China Development Forum, Premier Li Keqiang stressed boosting domestic demand, unifying the national market, advancing urbanization, and upgrading equipment and consumer goods. He also emphasized modernizing industries, driving innovation, upgrading traditional sectors, nurturing emerging ones, and fostering future industries to accelerate the development of new productive forces.
  • Atlanta Fed Chief Bostic said on Friday that he now only expects one interest rate cut this year, adding that the reduction will likely happen later in the year than he previously expected. He said he had less confidence about the trajectory of inflation than in December, and focus this week turns to the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE, due out on Friday.

     

    Macro events: US New Home Sales (Feb), US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Feb)

    Earnings: China Resources Land, Weichai Power

    In the news:

  • Apple CEO extols Chinese suppliers at Beijing forum as iPhone sales dip while Huawei gains (SCMP)
  • Japan stocks could grow more volatile with end of BOJ ETF purchases (Nikkei Asia)
  • Japan overtook China as the biggest private equity market in Asia-Pacific last year (SCMP)
  • China plans new rules on market access, data flows (Reuters)
  • Singapore Dollar’s Stellar Run Seen Ending on Monetary Easing (Bloomberg)
  • Chocolate Panic Escalates as Cocoa Crunch Sparks Scramble to Buy (Bloomberg)
  • China blocks use of Intel and AMD chips in government computers (FT)

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

The information on or via the website is provided to you by Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. (“Saxo Bank”) for educational and information purposes only. The information should not be construed as an offer or recommendation to enter into any transaction or any particular service, nor should the contents be construed as advice of any other kind, for example of a tax or legal nature.

All trading carries risk. Loses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Saxo Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information provided and shall not be responsible for any errors or omissions or for any losses or damages resulting from the use of such information.

The content of this website represents marketing material and is not the result of financial analysis or research. It has therefore has not been prepared in accordance with directives designed to promote the independence of financial/investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of financial/investment research.

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38
CH-8058
Zürich-Flughafen
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law. 

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.