Quick Take Asia

Global Market Quick Take: Asia – March 19, 2025

Macro 6 minutes to read
Saxo Be Invested
APAC Research

Key points:  

  • Macro: Germany approves historic borrowing package 
  • Equities: BYD hits new record high with new fast-charging tech
  • FX: JPY rebounded from lows as USDJPY retreated before BoJ policy announcement 
  • Commodities: Gold hit a new record, surpassing $3,030 
  • Fixed income: Treasuries were choppy ahead of FOMC meeting

------------------------------------------------------------------  

1903

Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.  

 Macro:  

  • Germany's outgoing parliament approved a major increase in government borrowing, including an overhaul of debt rules. The CDU/CSU bloc, SPD, and Greens secured a deal exempting defence spending from debt limits and establishing a €500 billion infrastructure plan. It now awaits a vote in the Bundesrat on Friday. 
  • U.S. import prices increased by 0.4% in February 2025, surpassing expectations. Fuel prices rose by 1.7%, while nonfuel import prices went up by 0.3%, driven by higher costs for industrial supplies and consumer goods. 
  • Canada's inflation rate rose to 2.6% in February 2025, the highest in eight months, exceeding expectations. The increase was driven by the end of GST and HST (harmonized sales tax) breaks, raising prices of eligible goods. Inflation slowed for restaurants and alcoholic beverages, causing a rebound in the food subindex. 
  • U.S. industrial production increased by 0.7% in February 2025, surpassing expectations. Manufacturing output rose by 0.9%, driven by an 8.5% jump in motor vehicles and parts, while other manufacturing increased by 0.4%. 

Equities:  

  • US - Wall Street saw renewed selling on Tuesday, pulling major indices down. The S&P 500 fell 1.1%, nearing correction territory; the Dow dropped 260 points; and the Nasdaq 100 sank 1.6% amid tech sector pressure. Tesla declined 5.3% after RBC Capital Markets cut its price target due to increased EV competition. Alphabet shares decreased 2.3% following Google's $32 billion acquisition of cloud security firm Wiz. Nvidia and Palantir also lost 3.4% and 4%, respectively.
  • EU - European stocks climbed for the third session on Tuesday, approaching March's record highs. The STOXX 50 rose 0.7% to 5,485, and the STOXX 600 gained 0.6% to 554. Germany's CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens approved a €500 billion spending package for defence and infrastructure, marking a historic debt rise. The DAX outperformed peers, rising 1% to 23,381, driven by gains in auto stocks such as Mercedes-Benz (2.2%), BMW (1.8%), VW (1.1%), and Continental (1.3%). Financials also rallied, with Allianz, Deutsche Bank, and Commerzbank gaining 1.4% to 4.2%.
  • HK - HSI rose 2.5%, to a three-year high of 24,740, driven by broad sector gains. The tech index led with a 4% jump, following Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index gains. BYD Co. hit a record with new fast-charging technology, Baidu surged 12.2% with new AI models, and Alibaba and Tencent rose 5.5% and 3.0%, respectively. Consumer and financial sectors benefited from strong early 2025 spending and record foreign inflows in February. 

Earnings this week: 

  • Wednesday: General Mills, Williams-Sonoma, Signet Jewelers, Five Below, Kingsoft Cloud, Tencent
  • Thursday: Nike, Accenture, FedEx, Micron Technology, Pinduoduo
  • Friday: NIO, Carnival Corporation, MiniSO Group, Soy Good, Zeekr, Torrid

FX: 

  • USD weakened to 103.19 amid focus on data, Trump-Putin talks, and the upcoming FOMC meeting. Strong housing and industrial production data led to an improved Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast. Treasury Secretary Bessent discussed non-automatic reciprocal tariffs and potential stacking on steel and aluminium.
  • EUR saw mild strengthening to 1.0940 during a volatile day after Germany's Bundestag approved the fiscal reform package, which had little effect on the currency.
  • GBP made slight gains against the dollar, nearly reaching 1.30. This week, attention is on Thursday's jobs data and the BoE's rate decision. While wage growth and labour market trends are key, they are unlikely to influence the BoE's expected unchanged rate decision, anticipated to be a 7-2 vote split.
  • AUD fell to 0.6345 amid declining risk sentiment. RBA Assistant Governor Hunter noted the board's February statement showed more caution about further easing than the market anticipated.
  • JPY weakened but recovered from its lowest levels as USDJPY pulled back from near 150 ahead of the BoJ's policy announcement on Wednesday.
  • CAD hit a three-week high of 1.43 against USD as inflation rose to 2.6% in February, and U.S.-Canada trade talks showed progress with preliminary agreements on reducing retaliatory tariffs.
  • Major economic data: BoJ Interest Rate Decision, Fed Interest Rate Decision, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Press Conference

Commodities: 

  • Oil prices stayed down due to rising US crude stockpiles and geopolitical concerns, with Brent near $70 and WTI below $67. Nationwide inventories rose by 4.6 million barrels, according to the American Petroleum Institute. 
  • Gold reached a record high above $3,030 an ounce due to rising Middle East tensions and concerns about the slowing US economy. The price increased by 1.3% as Israel's airstrikes in Gaza ended a nearly two-month ceasefire. 
  • Copper rose for the second day amid geopolitical risks and a weakening dollar. Vladimir Putin agreed to limit attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure for 30 days but rejected a broader ceasefire. 

Fixed income:  

  • Treasuries rose, reversing early losses from high US import prices and Canadian CPI. Gains were boosted by strong demand in the 20-year bond auction, yielding 1.4 basis points lower than expected. Overnight-indexed swaps suggest the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan will keep their policy rates unchanged, with focus on Governor Kazuo Ueda’s briefing at 3:30 pm Tokyo time.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.  

Outrageous Predictions 2026

01 /

  • Switzerland's Green Revolution: CHF 30 Billion Initiative by 2050

    Outrageous Predictions

    Switzerland's Green Revolution: CHF 30 Billion Initiative by 2050

    Katrin Wagner

    Head of Investment Content Switzerland

    Switzerland launches a CHF 30 billion energy revolution by 2050, rivaling Lindt & Sprüngli's market ...
  • The Swiss Fortress – 2026

    Outrageous Predictions

    The Swiss Fortress – 2026

    Erik Schafhauser

    Senior Relationship Manager

    Swiss voters reject EU ties, boosting the Swiss Franc and sparking Switzerland's "Souveränität Zuers...
  • Quantum leap Q-Day arrives early, crashing crypto and destabilizing world finance

    Outrageous Predictions

    Quantum leap Q-Day arrives early, crashing crypto and destabilizing world finance

    Neil Wilson

    Investor Content Strategist

    A quantum computer cracks today’s digital security, bringing enough chaos with it that Bitcoin crash...
  • Dollar dominance challenged by Beijing’s golden yuan

    Outrageous Predictions

    Dollar dominance challenged by Beijing’s golden yuan

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Beijing does an end-run around the US dollar, setting up a framework for settling trade in a neutral...
  • SpaceX announces an IPO, supercharging extraterrestrial markets

    Outrageous Predictions

    SpaceX announces an IPO, supercharging extraterrestrial markets

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    Financial markets go into orbit, to the moon and beyond as SpaceX expands rocket launches by orders-...
  • Dumb AI triggers trillion-dollar clean-up

    Outrageous Predictions

    Dumb AI triggers trillion-dollar clean-up

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

    Agentic AI systems are deployed across all sectors, and after a solid start, mistakes trigger a tril...
  • A Fortune 500 company names an AI model as CEO

    Outrageous Predictions

    A Fortune 500 company names an AI model as CEO

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Can AI be trusted to take over in the boardroom? With the right algorithms and balanced human oversi...
  • Taylor Swift-Kelce wedding spikes global growth

    Outrageous Predictions

    Taylor Swift-Kelce wedding spikes global growth

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    Next year’s most anticipated wedding inspires Gen Z to drop the doomscrolling and dial up the real w...
  • Obesity drugs for everyone – even for pets

    Outrageous Predictions

    Obesity drugs for everyone – even for pets

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

    The availability of GLP-1 drugs in pill form makes them ubiquitous, shrinking waistlines, even for p...
  • Despite concerns, U.S. 2026 mid-term elections proceed smoothly

    Outrageous Predictions

    Despite concerns, U.S. 2026 mid-term elections proceed smoothly

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    In spite of outstanding threats to the American democratic process, the US midterms come and go cord...

The information on or via the website is provided to you by Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. (“Saxo Bank”) for educational and information purposes only. The information should not be construed as an offer or recommendation to enter into any transaction or any particular service, nor should the contents be construed as advice of any other kind, for example of a tax or legal nature.

All trading carries risk. Loses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Saxo Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information provided and shall not be responsible for any errors or omissions or for any losses or damages resulting from the use of such information.

The content of this website represents marketing material and is not the result of financial analysis or research. It has therefore not been prepared in accordance with directives designed to promote the independence of financial/investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of financial/investment research.

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38
CH-8058
Zürich-Flughafen
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law. 

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.