Details Cookies
Important margin product information
CFDs and forex spot transactions are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor lose money when trading CFDs and/or forex spot with this provider. 0.56% of retail clients trading in leveraged products experience a negative account balance after a stop out occurred. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, forex spot transactions or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take high risk of losing your money.
Cookie policy

This website uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience by enabling, optimising and analysing site operations, as well as to provide personalised ad content and allow you to connect to social media. By choosing “Accept all” you consent to the use of cookies and the related processing of personal data. Select “Manage consent” to manage your consent preferences. You can change your preferences or retract your consent at any time via the cookie policy page. Please view our cookie policy here and our privacy policy here

Weekly Commodities Update Weekly Commodities Update Weekly Commodities Update

Global Market Quick Take: Asia – April 18, 2023

APAC Strategy Team

Summary:  The sideway trading in equities continued and VIX slumped to sub-17 levels even as Fed tightening bets picked up and Treasury yields surged. Higher USD brought EUR, JPY, crude oil and gold, all lower. Bank earnings continue to be a key focus after Charles Schwab and State Street reported deposit outflows, and Bank of America and Goldman Sachs will be on tap today along with the first look at tech with Netflix earnings. Focus in the Asian session on RBA minutes and China’s Q1 GDP release.

What’s happening in markets?

US indices (US500.I and USNAS100.I): remained buoyant and the volatility index retreats

The major indices made modest moves with the S&P500 closing at fresh cycle highs after rising for the sixth day and moving further above its 21-day moving average, suggesting buying momentum remains, even in the face of possible further Federal Reserve rate hikes. That said, higher US government bond yields capped gains. It’s worth highlighting that broad market fear, as measured by the volatility index, has fallen for the fourth day, with the VIX index trading at its lowest level since July 2022, on a weekly basis.

So far this earnings season five banks have reported results, and delivered earnings growth that beat expectations, and that’s supporting the KBW Bank ETF (KBWB), rise off its lows. A technical indicator for the ETF, the RSI, moved back above a level that suggests buying could potentially pick up. That said, we need to see better-than-expected results and outlooks from Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley who report Tuesday and Wednesday, to support this from a fundamental perspective. Charles Schwab’s results released overnight were better than expected, and followed the better-than-expected result streak, from Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo, as Fed hikes have boosted banks interest income.

Treasuries (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas): yields surge on a strong Empire manufacturing survey

Treasury yields started moving higher in London hours and decisively jumped when New York came in with the release of a jump of the Empire manufacturing index to 10.8 from the previous month’s -24.6 and consensus estimate of -18. Further, Fed’s Barkin wants to see more evidence of inflation returning to the 2% target. Block selling emerged on the 2-year futures and SORF contracts to price in an almost done deal for a 25bp hike at the May meeting increase in the odds of a June rate hike. Yields surged 8 to 10 basis points across the curve, with the 2-year and 10-year finishing at 4.19% and 3.60% respectively.

Chinese equities (HK50.I & 02846:xhkg): rally ahead of key data

Hang Seng Index and CSI300 Index both advanced, rising 1.7% and 1.4% respectively, led by financials, and consumer names. HSBC (00005:xhkg) gained 2.3% and leading Chinese bank names rose between 1.5% and 3%. Hang Seng TECH Index added 2.2% with eCommerce and EV names driving the advance. Meituan (03690:xhkg) surged 4.7% and other mega-cap China internet stocks climbed over 1%. EV maker XPeng (09868:xhkg) soared 12.5% on plans to cut costs. Nio (09866:xhkg) and Li Auto (02105:xhkg) gained around 6% and leading traditional automakers also advanced with Great Wall (02333:xhkg) surging 6%, ahead of the Shanghai Auto Show. The resource space did well on Monday. Base metal miner MMG (01208:xhkg) gained 4.5% and Petrol China (00857:xhkg) added 4.9% ahead of China’s GDP and activity data today.

Australian equities on watch: should the RBA backflip and change its tone

Australia’s benchmark index, the S&P/ASX 200 opened 0.4% lower at 10.30am Sydney time, weighed by a 2% drop in oil after the US dollar rose (triggered by higher US interest rates concerns). Woodside shares are down the most today, out of the mega-caps, with Woodside shares falling below its 50-day moving average, keeping traders on their toes with some expecting a further pull back. Elsewhere, gold stocks are being sold down, with traders taking profits after the gold price pulled back. Newcrest Mining shares technical indicators suggest buying momentum could be slowing, so that’s something to keep an eye on and could be a catalyst for investors to take profits and for traders to put in options for downside protection. Also keep in mind, we do see higher gold prices over the medium-to-longer term. The RBA meeting minutes will be dissected for clues today, that RBA can keep rates on hold. The risk is, should the minutes highlight rates will likely rise again, the ASX200 could face selling pressure, especially as the market has priced no further rate hikes are on the table, with the market expecting a rate cut in July.

FX: USD strength builds, AUD in focus with RBA minutes and China activity data on tap

The USD strength sustained in a broad-based manner on Monday as yields surged further with a better-than-expected NY Fed Empire State manufacturing survey, and EURUSD fell further below the 1.10 handle and GBPUSD breaking below 1.24 as eyes turn to labor market data due later today. USDJPY rose to 1-month highs of 134.57, bringing the 61.8% retracement level of 134.75 in focus ahead of the big 136 handle as BOJ chief Ueda appears in parliament today at 10am Tokyo time. AUDUSD was somewhat more resilient and remained stuck around 0.67 ahead of RBA minutes and China Q1 GDP report due for release today.

Crude oil: slumped 2% on improving supplies, China data on watch

Crude oil prices plummeted ~2% in the overnight session as demand concerns picked up with more Fed tightening bets coming through amid a host of economic indicators still showing strength. Concerns are also brewing on Asia demand, with reports suggesting that refiners in the region are considering cuts to output amid a dramatic drop in profit margins. Supply concerns meanwhile eased with possible resumption of oil export from Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdistan region via Türkiye's Ceyhan oil terminal. Russian crude exports also bounced back above 3 million barrels per day last week. WTI prices slid below $81/barrel and brent was below $85, and focus today will be on China’s Q1 GDP and March activity data.

Gold and silver: correction deepens as Fed tightening bets pick up

Precious metals were pressured lower on Monday as US yields surged further with the 10-year yields touching highs of 3.6% as the NY Fed’s manufacturing survey indicated further economic strength and room for Fed to keep rates higher-for-longer. Gold plunged to $1981 before a rebound to 1990+ levels, while silver touched lows of $24.80 before reversing to $25. Correction risks remain after metals reached overbought territory, and focus will be on this week’s PMI data as key along with a host of Fed speakers.


What to consider?

RBA meeting minutes will be a focus; the risk is that the market has priced in rates won’t rise, and cuts are on the table 

As mentioned in our Spotlight, the RBA meeting minutes will be dissected for clues the RBA can keep rates on hold. Just beware, that should the minutes highlight interest rates could likely rise again, the AUD could knee-jerk higher, especially as the market has priced no hikes are on the table, with a rate cut to be made as early as July. Should the RBA give any hawkish surprise, the AUDUSD resistance at perhaps 0.67 could be tested. If it rises above that, eyes will be on the AUD potentially crossing its 50-day moving average. 

Bank earnings: Mixed report from Charles Schwab but a disappointing one from State Street

Focus remains on regional banks reporting earnings this week, after we got an early insight last week on Friday with strong results from JP Morgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo. But the regional bank earnings have started on a more mixed footing amid deposit outflows. Charles Schwab, which was under pressure during the recent banking crisis, has reported today Q1 net revenue in line with estimates and EPS of $0.93 vs est. $0.90. But the US broker also reported Q1 deposits that declined to $325.7bn down from $366.7bn in Q4 2022 and down from $465.9bn a year ago highlighting that it has been hit hard on the funding side. Meanwhile, State Street reported lower net interest income, deposits and fee revenue in Q1, and customers withdrew a net $26 billion from State Street’s investment products in the quarter, compared to expectations of a $8bn inflows. Its deposits fell to $39 billion from $44 billion, and expectation is for another drop of $4-5 billion in Q2.

Samsung reportedly considering shift to Bing from Google

The New York Times reported that Samsung is considering moving from having Google as the default search engine in the smartphones it makes (in 2022, the number was 261 million handsets) to Microsoft’s Bing. The possibility of enhancing Bing’s performance with the addition of the technology of OpenAI, in which Microsoft has a stake, increasingly threatens Google’s dominance in the search engine service. Google (GOOGL:xnas) dropped by 2.7% and Microsoft (MSFT:xnas) gained 0.9% on Monday.

China's March activity data and GDP are expected to show an acceleration in growth

China's March economic activity data is expected to show an acceleration in growth, partly attributable to the base effect following strict lockdowns that began in major cities in March last year. According to a Bloomberg survey, the median forecast expects a notable rise in retail sales growth to 8.0% Y/Y in March, up from 3.5% in the prior two months. The favorable base effect and a boost from services are expected to contribute to this growth. Additionally, surveyed consensus on industrial production anticipates an acceleration in growth to 4.7% Y/Y in March, compared to 2.4% in January and February. The same survey forecasts fixed asset investment to grow by 5.8% year-to-date, slightly higher than the 5.5% in the first two months of the year. Furthermore, economists surveyed by Bloomberg anticipate China's Q1 real GDP growth to recover to 3.9% Y/Y, up from 2.9% Y/Y in Q4.

UK labor data to be the next key test for GBP

May hike from the Bank of England still remains in play with about a 80% probability, but commentary from officials has remained mixed. While economic momentum continues to pick up compared to recession calls being made late last year, this week’s data will be a key test for how much room there might be for further tightening. Labor data out on Tuesday and traders will be looking for signs on whether wage growth has peaked. Bloomberg consensus expects March employment change to come in at 48k from 98k in February, with the 3-month unemployment rate remaining steady at 3.7%. Weekly earnings is expected to grow 5.1% YoY in the three months to March from 5.7% previously. GBPUSD has plunged below 1.24 amid recent USD strength but supports are still far at with 100DMA and 50% retracement of the recent rally sitting just below 1.22.

Netflix to set sentiment in technology stocks

This week the Q1 earnings season gets very important with key earnings from Netflix on Tuesday which will set the stage for sentiment in technology stocks ahead of next week’s technology earnings. Analysts expect Netflix to report revenue growth of 4% y/y in Q1 and EPS of $2.87 down 10% from a year ago. Netflix is in the midst of a turnaround case which involves less password sharing for higher revenue monetisation, an advertisement-based model generating revenue of customers that do not want a subscription, and finally less own content production to reduce investment needs. All these actions are positive for shareholder creation.


For a detailed look at what to watch in markets this week – read or watch our Saxo Spotlight.

For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (
Full disclaimer (

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
Beethovenstrasse 33

Contact Saxo

Select region


All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law.

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.