Chart of the Week : Hong Kong Air Freight Volume
Head of Macro Analysis
Summary: Our 'Macro Chartmania' series collects Macrobond data and focuses on a single chart chosen for its relevance.
Click here to download this week's full edition of Macro Chartmania.
Today’s edition focuses on global air freight. At Saxo, we monitor closely air cargo growth statistics from major hubs in Asia and in Europe as they usually are very sensitive to changes in the business cycle, especially in the manufacturing sector, and thus provide useful insights on the real state of the global economy. Last week, updated data have been published for Hong Kong International Airport, which is the busiest air cargo hub in the world. Freight volumes have been in contraction since the beginning of the year due to the global lockdown and strict measures implemented in China to contain the virus since January. In June, freight volumes were still down, at minus 6.6% YoY. The 3-month moving average, which smooths out the effects of month-to-month changes, was out a minus 8.4% YoY. These figures tend to confirm there is no V-shaped recovery in sight. In a V-shaped world, we would have seen a strong jump in air freight and companies starting to focus on production rather than cutting expenses and jobs. Despite the rebound in growth in China in Q2, that was mostly fueled by SOE, the outlook for global trade, and especially the manufacturing sector, remains very bleak. We expect that global trade will stay in “hibernation” at least until the end of the year. What is the most worrying is that the worst may not be behind us as there is still a risk of second wave of the pandemic at the global level and as trade war risk might quickly come back on investors' radar screens in the context of the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.