Senior Fixed Income Strategist
This week we expect market sentiment to depend on news concerning President Trump's health and progress regarding the fiscal stimulus package. The main questions are: (1) will Trump be able to run the presidential campaign? (2) will the stimulus package be agreed upon or there might be further delays?
Investors will most likely not want to take a strong market position as it is not clear if the President's symptoms will become more severe. On Friday, the CFTC Commitment of Traders showed that traders' short position in bond futures is the biggest ever on record. Ultra and long maturities were the most sold, indicating that the market expects a fast bear steepener. This sentiment can translate in lower participation in this week's 30-year treasury auction.
We have a week rich of federal reserve speeches and government bond auctions where the US government will look to sell 3, 10 and 30 year Treasuries. It will be crucial to monitor whether treasuries demand softens up as bearish sentiment can leak to the corporate bond space hindering the pipeline in the primary market.
In Europe, investors will try to wrap their head around weaker than expected consumer prices which were released last week. If the ECB decides to increase stimulus, we might see sovereigns prices rising fast. The country that will most likely benefit from it, it's Italy as more aid is necessary to fight long term deflation.
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8th of October:
9th of October
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