Zooming in on the chart covering the past 5 years we can see the 10-year yields have formed an inverted Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pattern which was confirmed at January’s break above the Neckline around 1.65%. Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pattern is reversal pattern.
Moving higher yields are close to test the 0.618 Fibonacci level of the difference between the Neckline and the Head low. If yields move the entire distance of the Neckline to Head distance (green dashed arrow) it will be close to test the 2018 peak.
However, the 200 Monthly SMA and the falling (parallel shifted) trend line will act as resistance from where a minor correction should be expected.
If the 10-year yields break above strong resistance at the 2018 peak there is no strong resistance before 5.12%. Minor resistance around 4%.