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CFDs and forex spot transactions are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor lose money when trading CFDs and/or forex spot with this provider. 0.42% of retail clients trading in leveraged products experience a negative account balance after a stop out occurred.
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CFDs and forex spot transactions are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor lose money when trading CFDs and/or forex spot with this provider. 0.42% of retail clients trading in leveraged products experience a negative account balance after a stop out occurred. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, forex spot transactions or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take high risk of losing your money.
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Weekly FX Chartbook: Fed’s hawkishness meets BOJ’s dovishness

Forex 5 minutes to read
Charu Chanana 400x400
Charu Chanana

Chief Investment Strategist

Summary:

  • USD: Fed has a high bar to surprise hawkish, dollar to stay sideways
  • JPY: 160+ zone in USDJPY could be tested if no intervention
  • AUD: RBA rate hike risks and upbeat global risk sentiment to support
  • CHF: CPI miss could increase odds of June rate cut
  • CNH: Devaluation risks on watch
29_FX_Weekly
The Fed-BOJ divergence has taken a heavy toll on JPY again last week, while Gold and Silver correction ensued.
29_FX_Momentum
Our FX Scorecard shows momentum increasingly negative in yen while AUD remains upbeat as RBA rate hike is back on the table after Q1 inflation beat.
29_FX_Positioning
Forex COT to the week of April 23 saw dollar long positioning extending by a further 27%. EUR positioning turned to a net short for the first time since September 2020, JPY short positioning extended to an 18-month high while GBP shorts were the highest since September 2022. Shorts were only covered in AUD and CAD.
29_FX_Outlook

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Other recent Macro/FX articles:

29 Apr: Global Market Quick Take - Asia
26 Apr: JPY: Bank of Japan adds to reasons to stay bearish yen
25 Apr: JPY: Accelerated sell-off; can the BOJ halt yen's decline?
25 Apr: Thematic Podcast: Deciphering Asian forex interventions
23 Apr: Technical Update - USDJPY ticking higher. EURJPY and AUDJPY at key resistance levels. GBPJPY range bound, bullish breakout?
23 Apr: GBP: What can drive the next leg lower?
22 Apr: Weekly FX Chartbook: Stretched USD strength is raising intervention alert
19 Apr: FX 101: Using FX for portfolio diversification
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12 Apr: Riding the Fed-ECB Policy Divergence
11 Apr: ECB rate decision: How to trade the event
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9 Apr: US inflation report: How to trade the event
8 Apr: Macro and FX Podcast: NFP, CPI, ECB and Japan
8 Apr: Weekly FX Chartbook: US CPI, geopolitics and dovish pivots from ECB and Bank of Canada in focus
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20 Mar: Japan’s exit from negative rates: Implications for the economy, yen and stocks
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Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. Please ensure you consult our Risk Warning before you start trading and you understand the risks.

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

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