Technical Update - Rebound time in JPY pairs: USDJPY, EURJPY, AUDJPY, GBPJPY and CHFJPY Technical Update - Rebound time in JPY pairs: USDJPY, EURJPY, AUDJPY, GBPJPY and CHFJPY Technical Update - Rebound time in JPY pairs: USDJPY, EURJPY, AUDJPY, GBPJPY and CHFJPY

Technical Update - Rebound time in JPY pairs: USDJPY, EURJPY, AUDJPY, GBPJPY and CHFJPY

Forex 5 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Summary:  JPY pairs are rebounding across the board. Question is how much can they rebound with underlying sentiment still being negative


USDJPY has formed a Doji morning bottom and reversal like pattern (not the most textbook perfect pattern) and is close to be testing minor resistance at around 142.85. A close above could further fuel the bounce to the 0.382 retracement at around 144.70

A close above 144.95 and above the 200 DMA could push USDJPY higher towards 146.60-147.50.
The declining 55 and 100 DMA’s will limit the short-term upside potential however.

RSI divergence indicated downtrend exhaustion supporting the rebound picture currently unfolding.

A close below 140.25 is likely to send USDJPY down to around 138
Source all charts and data: Saxo Group
EURJPY seems to be bouncing off the rising 200 DMA. If the pair can hold up a move back to test the resistance at around 158.55 is likely.
Around that the resistance level the declining 55 and 100 DMA’s will add to the resistance strength.

A break below 155 will demolish the rebound scenario and likely sending the EURJPY to test the 153 support

AUDJPY found support at the lower Cloud (shaded area) just above the 100 DMA

RSI seems to be bouncing from its lower rising trendline. If AUDJPY can close back above the 55 DMA a move to test key resistance at around 97.58 is likely

A close below the Cloud i.e., a close below 95.85 AUDJPY is likely to resume bearish trend with a move towards, and likely below 95.00

GBPJPY seems to be bouncing off the 200 DMA. A bullish move to test the upper falling trendline seems likely. A break above the falling trendline could be seen but the with the declining the 55 and 100 DMA’s upside potential is limited short-term.
If sellers can regain control the support around 178 could come under pressure. 

RSI behaviour is key here; if RSI is closing back below its lower rising trendline and below 40 threshold bearish trend is resuming and could send GBPJPY below 178.

If RSI can hold up above 40 and break above the upper rising trendline there is upside potential for GBPJPY to around 182.50

CHFJPY is in a bit of a limbo. From a trend perspective it has formed an uptrend i.e., higher highs and higher lows but RSI failing to close above 60 threshold has not confirmed a continued bullish scenario.
If CHFJPY can close back above the Cloud and RSI above 60 there is upside potential top November peak around 170.60

IF failing to do so and CHFJPY instead is sliding back below the Cloud i.e., back below 165.25 bear trend is likely resuming with downside potential to around 162.50

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38
CH-8058
Zürich-Flughafen
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law. 

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.