Technical Update - EURUSD, GBPUSD and Dollar Index corrections. More to come or is that it? Technical Update - EURUSD, GBPUSD and Dollar Index corrections. More to come or is that it? Technical Update - EURUSD, GBPUSD and Dollar Index corrections. More to come or is that it?

Technical Update - EURUSD, GBPUSD and Dollar Index corrections. More to come or is that it?

Forex 3 minutes to read
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Summary:  After two months one way trends EURUSD, GBPUSD and Dollar Index are in correction mode. All retraced 0.382 of the last leg. Was that it or is there more in the cards?
EURUSD could move to 1.0760
GBPUSD to 1.2475?
Dollar Index to 104?

EURUSD has retraced 0.382 of the last leg down since early September and is testing upper falling trendline in the falling channel and strong resistance at around 1.0635. That level was also the strong support back in September and is now a very strong resistance level

EURUSD needs to close above for further upside potential to the 0.618 of the last leg down since September and the 0.328 retracement of the entire downtrend since July around 1.0762.
That level was also the strong support back in August and is now a very strong resistance level

If EURUSD is failing to closed above 1.0635 it could slide back lower towards this month's lows below 1.05

RSI is could be key here, divergence end-September strongly indicated a correction. That correction is now ongoing question is how high can it go.

RSI is still showing negative sentiment – needs to close above 60 threshold to reverse to positive - but an EURUSD close above 1.0635 could be good indication RSI will break back above 60

Source all charts and data: Saxo Group

GBPUSD rebound seems to be stalling at the 0.382 retracement around 1.23

However, RSI divergence is indicating GBPUSD to rebound higher. A move to the 0.618 retracement of the last leg down since early September at 1.2475 is in the cards. Next couple of days are likely to be decisive for GBPUSD.

If GBPUSD is sliding back below its declining 21 Moving Average sellers could regain strength and push GBPUS towards 1.20

Dollar Index is testing key support at around 105.34. A close below is likely to initiate a larger sell-off down to the 0.618 retracement of the last leg up since September and strong support at around 104.39.

A dip down to the 0.382 retracement of the entire uptrend at around 104.06 should not be ruled out.

RSI divergence is supporting the correction picture.

If Dollar Index bounces back to close above the rising trendline the bullish trend could get its second wind higher towards 107.90

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (
Full disclaimer (

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38

Contact Saxo

Select region


All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law. 

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.