Technical Update - EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, EURJPY & Dollar Index Technical Update - EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, EURJPY & Dollar Index Technical Update - EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, EURJPY & Dollar Index

Technical Update - EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, EURJPY & Dollar Index

Forex 4 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

EURUSD is testing lower rising trendline after heavy selling. A close below the trendline could push EURUSD towards the key support at around 1.0833

However, a dip to test the 0.786 retracement at 1.0928 could be seen.

Daily RSI without divergence is still showing positive sentiment and will remain so unless it closes below 40 threshold. A bounce could therefor be seen followed by uptrend resuming.
A close above 1.1150 will confirm uptrend has resumed.

A close below 1.0833 will change the picture on medium-term to bearish with downside potential to 1.07

Source all charts and data: Saxo Group

GBPUSD rebound was cut short by heavy selling pushing it below the 0.618 retracement at 1.28.
GBPUSD could test the lower rising trendlines and they 0.786 retracement at 1.2708

If GBPUSD drops further to close below 1.2590 the medium-term uptrend has been reversed with down side potential to around 1.23-1.2175

There is no RSI divergence and the indicator is still in positive sentiment suggesting what we are witnessing is merely just a larger correction.
A move back above 1.30 will confirm uptrend has resumed.

USDJPY was once again hit by heavy selling pushing the pair down below 55 Moving Average to few cents from the support at around 137.85.

If taking out 14th July trough at 137.35 a move to 0.618 retracement at 135.54 is likely. If that scenario plays out it could demolish the medium-term uptrend with further downside to follow.

A move to strong support at around 133 could be seen.
RSI is showing negative sentiment supporting lower USDJPY and for that picture to change a close above 142 is needed.

 

EURJPY broke yesterday below lower rising trendline and by closing below 153.28 has confirmed a Double Top pattern.
RSI has switched to negative indicating downside potential to 148.63 as indicated by the two vertical arrows.

However, quite often the full Double Top downside potential is not reached. A drop to the 0.618 level at 150.40 could an exhaustive move before buyers take back control.
100 daily Moving Average is adding to the support around that level.

A close below 148.60 will demolish the medium-term bullish picture.

Dollar Index is testing the 0.618 retracement at 101.73 but could bounce to the 0.786 retracement at 102.41 without reversing the medium-term bearish trend.

RSI is still in negative sentiment and needs to close above 60 to change that.

The declining 55 and 100 daily Moving Averages will provide overhead resistance. Dollar Index seems likely to resume downtrend. TI will be confirmed by a close below 100.32. Down side potential to 98-97.

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38
CH-8058
Zürich-Flughafen
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law. 

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.