Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Technical picture and levels in this article: EURAUD, EURCAD, EURCHF, EURGBP and EURJPY
EURAUD seems to be forming a rising wedge like formation. Rejected at the 200 daily SMA it is close to test the lower rising trend line. A break below some support at around 1.50 but not unlikely to drop to around 1.4750.
For upside to resume a break above 1.54 is needed.
EURCAD has broken key support at 1.3390. No strong support before around 1.3025.
EURCHF saying goodbye to parity moving lower. Down trend seems to be accelerating with no strong support to be seen. We are back in the 2015 territory, when SNB abandoned the floor and if that range is a guide EURCHF could drop to its lowest level back then i.e. around 0.90.
EURCHF has formed a Shoulder-Head-Shoulder like formation over the past 8 years since the collapse. Taking the distance from the Neckline to the Head and subtracting it from the breakout price indicates a price around 0.90 (indicated by the two horizontal arrows)
EURGBP is trading in a wide rising channel moving close to test the lower trend line. If broken there is downside risk to around 0.8450-0.8440.
Strong resistance at 0.8720