Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
AUDUSD confirmed short-term uptrend yesterday breaking above 0.7069. RSI back above 60 indicating AUDUSD is likely to move higher towards resistance at 0.7283. AUDUSD could move higher from there after a likely correction. If closing above 0.76 AUDUSD could move toward peak at around 0.7660.
To neutralise that scenario AUDUSD must move back below 0.7069. To reverse it AUDUSD must collapse to below 0.6865.
Weekly chart shows AUDUSD trading in a wide falling channel. A test of upper falling trendline is not unlikely, given that the above bullish scenario plays out.
AUDJPY is slowly crawling higher after the spike down below key support last week. AUDJPY is back above all Simple Moving averages and RSI is still showing positive sentiment indicating a test of the slightly falling upper trendline is likely. If AUDJPY breaks above the trendline and above resistance at 95.75 the pairs is likely to take out the peak in June at around 96.90.
GBPAUD is testing support at 1.7173 and seems likely to break bearish out of the range it has been trading in past 6 months. If AUDGBP closes below 1.7173 the pair is set for lower levels