The G-10 rundown
USD – status please? We have seen some confusing price action since late yesterday, when the USD rallied in its oft-played role as the flipside of risk appetite, but the status of that move was thrown into doubt in early European hours. Watching the weekly close as well as the relative strength of the greenback versus the JPY for a sense of direction.
EUR – EURUSD went over the edge below 1.1750 overnight only to snap back above 1.1800 in the European morning, a chop-fest making life miserable for traders. That 1.1750-1.1700 zone is critical for whether we finally get a consolidation to the more notable trend support toward 1.1500.
JPY – the JPY playing catchup with other USD pairs as USDJPY sniffs out the territory below 105.00 – a level the pair has not closed below on a weekly close since early 2018 (and even then it was quickly rejected.)
GBP – Interesting test for sterling today over the BoE as it sifts through its policy options – a lean for more QE sooner rather than later might not prove so damaging, but talking up negative rates policy potential is a different matter. Meanwhile, the course of the Brexit Bill and then negotiations with the EU will prove the bigger key between now and mid-October. GBP has rallied to pivotal levels today in EURGBP (0.9100 area) and GBPUSD (1.3000).
CHF – the franc grinding slightly higher on safe haven seeking and in sympathy with the JPY, and now EURCHF is having a look at its range lows since late July ahead of 1.0700.
AUD – a surprising resilience here – yes the jobs data was positive, but was heavily affected by self-employment gains and part-time work. Meanwhile a bit surprising to see the Aussie so readily bouncing back despite very weak iron ore prices over the last few sessions and cratering risk sentiment. 0.7225-0.7200 the key trigger area for taking AUDUSD out of choppy rising channel if the bears are to prevail.
CAD – our commodities strategist Ole Hansen concerned that oil comeback is challenged by fundamental situation, but USDCAD turned tail back lower after trying toward local resistance into 1.3250+. The 1.3300-50 zone critical for a larger CAD consolidation to the weak side.
SEK – risk sentiment improvement this morning in Europe is seeing EURSEK reject attempt at resistance thus far, but too soon to call an end to upside risks.
NOK – EURNOK caught between weak risk sentiment (NOK negative) and the strong two-day rally in oil (NOK positive).
Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT)
- 1100 – UK Bank of England Rate Decision
- 1230 – Canada ADP Payroll Data
- 1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims
- 1230 – US Aug. Housing Starts and Building Permits
- 1230 – US Sep. Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook
- 1430 – US Weekly Natural Gas Storage
- 2330 – Japan Aug. National CPI
- No time given – South Africa SARB Rate Announcement