Head of Saxo Strats
Summary: The commodities basket was the best performing theme basket last week up 5.9% driven by strong performance across the energy stocks due to the OPEC+ decision last week to cut production by 2mn barrels per day. At the other end of the spectrum all of our green baskets (energy storage, renewable energy, and green transformation) were the worst performing baskets. We have also added a nuclear theme basket to be able to track the interest of this energy source as the energy crisis has clearly put nuclear power back on the map for investors.
Commodities show strength on OPEC+ and weaker USD
The best performing theme basket last week was commodities up 5.9% driven by strong gains across the whole sector as OPEC+ decided on Wednesday last week to cut production by 2mn barrels per day. In addition, the USD showed signs of weakness although the currency back during the week. Themes exposed to the physical world are still our preferred themes and they include commodities, defence, logistics, and renewable energy.
It was the energy companies that delivered the strongest gains in the commodities basket with the best performing stock being Canadian Natural Resources up 17.2% which has a higher sensitivity to oil prices given its higher cost per barrel metrics for its oil sand assets at around $30/brl. The oil company has assets with a long asset-life and low maintenance requirements, on top of a competitive advantage in a world hungry for more oil in the short-term. The company reports Q3 results on 31 October with analysts expecting revenue at CAD 10.6bn down from CAD 11.5bn in Q2 but still up 37.8% y/y. Free cash flow is expected to remain strong in the years to come with CAD 13.5bn expected in 2023 compared to an enterprise value of CAD 97.6bn.
The green baskets were having a red week
All of our green baskets, energy storage (batteries, fuel cells etc.), renewable energy (production of green energy), and green transformation (companies using green energy) were underperforming last week and it has been a trend that we have observed for some time. The disruption in the European energy markets, specifically the electricity markets, is causing a headache for the industry because of pricing regulation making it more difficult to assess asset valuations. In the green transformation basket the EV makers have been under pressure due to enormous input cost pressures from high lithium and aluminum prices.
Nuclear power theme added
We have also added a nuclear theme basket which consists of companies within uranium mining, operation of nuclear power plants, and companies selling technology related to nuclear power. The basket is one way to express investor sentiment on nuclear power, but it is important to note that it is a difficult theme to construct a pure and good exposure profile around. We have also decided to remove the crypto & blockchain and 3D printing theme baskets from our core themes and thus our performance tables because both themes are small and very niche. Both themes are still available on our trading platforms under research for inspiration, but they are no longer part of our overview of themes to digest flows in the market.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
