Quarterly Outlook
Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Qualcomm stepped onto Nvidia’s home turf this week. Its new AI chips, designed for the power-hungry data centres that run the world’s biggest models, sent the stock soaring and signalled that the smartphone chip king wants a seat at the AI table.
The launch of its new AI200 and AI250 accelerators marks Qualcomm’s most ambitious bet yet on artificial intelligence. Instead of competing directly with Nvidia in the ultra-high end “training” market, Qualcomm is targeting the practical and increasingly critical world of AI inference, where models are deployed and used in real-world applications.
Investors reacted strongly and the stock jumped as much as 20% in early trading before closing the day up around 11%, lifting Qualcomm’s market value above USD 200 billion. For a company long defined by its smartphone business, this was a clear statement that its future now extends far beyond mobile devices.
Qualcomm’s move into AI infrastructure is both strategic and necessary. The smartphone market has matured, and while it remains profitable, growth opportunities are limited. The AI buildout, by contrast, represents one of the largest technology investment cycles in decades. This move diversifies Qualcomm’s revenue base and aligns it with one of the fastest-growing parts of the chip industry.
Rather than chasing raw processing power, Qualcomm is betting that efficiency will define the next phase of AI. Most AI workloads in the coming years are expected to take place during inference, where power consumption, memory capacity and total cost of ownership matter as much as raw performance. The company wants to lead in making AI more accessible, affordable and energy efficient.
The two new chips, the AI200 and AI250, will be rolled out in 2026 and 2027 respectively. They will be offered both as individual accelerators and as complete rack-scale systems that data centres can install directly. The systems feature liquid cooling, large memory capacity of up to 768 GB, and a design focused on lowering power use and operational costs.
By selling fully integrated systems rather than just chips, Qualcomm is targeting customers seeking ready-made, power-optimised infrastructure. It has also committed to an annual upgrade cycle, ensuring a steady stream of new products and improvements. This cadence could help maintain customer engagement and technological momentum in a market that moves quickly.
The AI chip market is dominated by Nvidia, whose GPUs and software ecosystem are deeply entrenched across the industry. AMD and major cloud players are also building their own chips to reduce reliance on Nvidia.
Against that backdrop, Qualcomm is taking a pragmatic route. It is not trying to outperform Nvidia on raw speed. Instead, it is focusing on performance per watt and cost efficiency. If its chips can deliver comparable results using less power and at lower total cost, it could gain traction in markets where budgets and energy constraints limit the use of traditional GPUs.
This strategy could resonate with a growing number of clients from governments building national AI infrastructure to enterprises deploying large models on smaller budgets. The opportunity lies in helping the next wave of AI users scale efficiently rather than serving only the biggest and most well-funded players.
The first major client will be Humain, a Saudi Arabia-backed AI initiative that plans to deploy about 200 megawatts of Qualcomm systems starting in 2026. Based on the company’s system specifications, that equates to roughly 1,200 racks. That’s not hyperscale by Nvidia standards, but large enough to demonstrate that Qualcomm’s systems can operate reliably and efficiently at meaningful scale.
What happens next will be crucial. Expanding beyond this initial partnership to win contracts with Western cloud providers or large enterprises will determine whether Qualcomm’s technology can achieve widespread adoption.
For investors, the next quarters will be all about execution. Three areas stand out as key indicators of progress.
Another area to watch is software. Nvidia’s dominance owes as much to its powerful software ecosystem as its hardware. For Qualcomm to succeed, it will need to show that its systems integrate smoothly with existing AI frameworks such as PyTorch and TensorFlow, reducing friction for developers and customers alike.
Qualcomm’s announcement highlights how the AI hardware race is beginning to fragment and mature. The first wave of the AI boom focused on training massive models with the most powerful chips available. The next phase will be about deploying those models efficiently, which will require cheaper, more sustainable and more widely distributed computing power.
Inference is expected to dominate AI workloads in the coming years. That makes Qualcomm’s focus on power efficiency and scalability highly relevant. Its background in designing energy-efficient mobile processors could prove to be a competitive advantage as data centres face growing scrutiny over energy use.
This shift could also benefit suppliers of networking equipment, cooling systems and memory components that support more modular, power-conscious data centre architectures. The ripple effects of Qualcomm’s move may therefore extend well beyond the semiconductor sector.
The market’s reaction shows investors are eager for credible challengers to Nvidia’s dominance. Qualcomm’s strategy looks realistic and differentiated, though still in its very early stages. The company has yet to disclose pricing or performance details, and meaningful revenue from this segment is unlikely before late 2026.
Even so, the move marks an important evolution. After years tied to smartphone cycles, Qualcomm is reinventing itself for an era where computing power is the new currency. Its focus on efficiency gives it a clear angle in a market shifting from pure performance to economics and scalability.
The AI industry is often compared to a gold rush, but the winners are rarely those with the biggest tools. They are the ones who mine smarter. If Qualcomm executes well, this could be the start of a durable and profitable new chapter.
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