Technical Update - DAX, CAC40, AEX and UK100
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
DAX is both short term and medium term in a down trend. DAX is (at the time of writing) moving in to the consolidation area testing 14K level.
Weekly chart: The break below the key support at 14,816 confirmed the double/triple top like formation formed over the past 8-10 months suggesting price targets around 13,310. 200 weekly SMA is still rising slightly also offering some support.
CAC40 is close to test the key support at around 6,421. The leading French Index is in the process of unfolding the Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pattern formed over the past 4 months with potential to further downside.
Rising trend line broken support area around 6,421-6,253 is likely to be reached in very near future. If moving below that area 6,000 is next psychological level but there would be down side risk to around 5,610 i.e. 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the uptrend and roughly where the weekly 200 SMA is offering some support
AEX Amsterdam hovering around the consolidation area 735-700. However, a break below 713 and we are likely to see another test of 700. A daily close below 700 there is no strong support before around 600.
200 Daily Moving Average seems to important support for UK100 (FTSE100) testing it several times past 6 months moving in a rising channel pattern.
A close below 200 SMA AND below rising trendline is likely to be the end of uptrend for UK100/FTSE100 Index. However, the Index is still quite a bit above outperforming most other indices at the moment which have down trends confirmed.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook Q3 2022: The Runaway Train
- Winter is coming to the financial markets as central banks are tightening their grip. How spring will look is still a question.
European energy crisis: it will get worse before it gets betterThe winter in Europe will be tough, but whether the result is political chaos or sustainable, innovative solutions is still undecided.
A difficult and volatile quarter awaitsAs the year draws to an end, commodities continue to be at centre stage of the world with growth pockets political uncertainty.
The bright side: crises drive innovationThe positive spin on crises is that they come with solutions. It is worrisome that deglobalisation may be a response to this crisis.
Green transformation in China: renewable energy and beyondGoing green, China needs to span numerous energy sources to ensure stability, as every source comes with a challenge.
Asia: Intermittent solutions, but a faster renewable adoption curveAsian energy supply is being squeezed. This and the adoption of renewables may change the investment sentiment in the region.
FX: A Fed thaw needed to deliver a sustained USD turn lowerThe US Dollar can keep momentum when the Federal Reserve continues to tighten, leaving the rest to play to their drum.
Autumn can become ugly for equities and bond holders. Comfort for Dollar longsTechnical analysis suggests that equities could face a tough Q4 as could fixed income. US Dollar positions could provide some upside.
The next stock market sector to watch, with stocks going nuclearAs the world scrambles to find affordable, sustainable energy, nuclear is getting attention from politicians and investors alike.
The crypto space is getting cold when the hype disappearsCryptocurrencies face a winter of their own as retail investors and governments are asking tough questions.