Crypto Weekly: Global chip shortage and new applications for a Bitcoin ETF

Mads Eberhardt

Cryptocurrency Analyst

Summary:  The Bitcoin price surge has contributed to multiple new applications for a Bitcoin ETF in the US. At the same time, miners are having a hard-time receiving enough mining rigs - and those having spare time are fighting against an update on the Ethereum-network.


Global chip shortage influences the Bitcoin mining industry

Over the past couple of weeks, German carmakers have reported a shortage of essential chips used in their cars, which has led to factory shutdowns and fewer cars being produced across Germany. Bitcoin and cryptocurrency miners are also reporting that the chip shortage is starting to influence them as they are a fundamental part of the mining rigs used in their operation. To make matters worse, the demand for mining rigs has surged over the past months due to the surge in cryptocurrency prices, making the shortage of mining rigs even worse. The shortage contributes to slowing down the growth in hash rate – a term used for how much computer power is used to mine cryptocurrencies. Furthermore, it makes it more difficult for smaller miners to operate, leading to a concentration of the mining power on fewer hands over time. In theory, making the network less decentralized.

Miners against the Ethereum developers

A lot is going on concerning the further development of Ethereum with the ETH 2.0 launch. However, before the network experiences the full effect of ETH 2.0, another update is in the pipeline. The update is called EIP 1559. Its purpose is to change the way users are paying miners for transactions. Going from a solely bidding model to a fixed fee – with the option to tip miners, the idea is to make the fees more predictable and less expensive. Furthermore, some of the fees will automatically be burned. The burning mechanism of transaction fees will help keep inflation at a minimum. As miners are being compensated the fees in return for processing transactions, they are – naturally – not keen on the update. One of the third-biggest pools, called Ethermine, accounting for close to 20% of the hash rate on the network, has joined several other minor pools against the update. One of the other bigger miners on the network, F2Pool, is on the other hand, voting for the update. If the miners against the update attract 51% of the hash rate to the movement, they are, in theory, able to cancel the update. It will most likely not go that far, but my main concern stretches further to ETH 2.0. If a notable group of miners are greatly against this update, what about ETH 2.0 then? ETH 2.0 will, over time, make miners completely unnecessary, not only reducing their compensation. Therefore, as we get closer, we may experience miners trying to fork Ethereum – which means copying the cryptocurrency to form a new version, just like Bitcoin Cash is a fork of Bitcoin - and by that, contribute to chaos in the community. Or will they go with the flow and let ETH 2.0 happen without any problems? Only time will tell.

The ongoing question on a potential Bitcoin ETF continues

For years, it has been a topic among cryptocurrency enthusiasts whether an American-based Bitcoin ETF would be approved or not, as many investors are preferring investing in an ETF. So far, the luck has not been with the ones hoping for this to come into effect as no ETF has been approved by the SEC, even though many firms have tried. Many firms are still hopefully submitting their application to the SEC for a Bitcoin ETF. Several companies have submitted their application last week – including a Texas-based family investment fund. However, yesterday Ark Investment Management’s CEO, Cathie Wood, said that she doubts the SEC will approve an ETF before the cryptocurrency’s market capitalization hits $2 trillion. The current market capitalization is slightly below $600 billion. Ark Investment Management is currently having over $10 billion under its management.

BTC against USD. Source: CoinMarketCap.
ETH against USD. Source: CoinMarketCap.

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo...
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami...
  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p...
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Quarterly Outlook

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ...
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38
CH-8058
Zürich-Flughafen
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law. 

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.