Technical Update - WTI broken bullish. Brent Struggling. Natural Gas bounce still has legs to go but for how long?

Technical Update - WTI broken bullish. Brent Struggling. Natural Gas bounce still has legs to go but for how long?

Commodities 4 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Summary:  WTI Crude oil broken above key resistance but Brent oil is struggling. Natural Gas bounce continuing. How high can it go?


WTI Crude oil closed Friday above key strong resistance at around 79.77. RSI closed back above 60 threshold supporting a bullish trend.

WTI is above the slightly rising 200 Daily Moving Average and with the 55 DMA rising steep below the underlying sentiment is bullish. Should be noted however, that the 100 DAM is declining adding to a bit mixed picture i.e., a bullish move is likely to be struggling for momentum

However, there is now upside potential to the 1.382 projection at 84.14 close to the 0.618 retracement at 84.59. Strong resistance at around 82.56, however, could cut the bullish move short.

A close below 75.50 will demolish the bullish scenario
Source all charts and data: Saxo Group

Brent Crude oil on the other hand has not broken its key resistance at around 84.75.
A close above is needed for a confirmation of a bullish scenario, supported by an RSI close above 60. RSI is showing positive sentiment already but needs to close back above 60 for continued confirmation.

A close above 84.75 could push Brent to resistance at around 87.35 but there could be potential to 89.50-90.50
The Daily Moving Averages are acting like the Moving Averages for WTI.

A close below 80.70 will initiate a bearish move lower

Dutch TTF Gas has bounced off support at around 22.85. The Gas contract could bounce to the 0.618 retracement at around 27.82 if it can overcome resistance at around 26.50.

A push to the 0.786 retracement at 29.31 should not be ruled out. Strong resistance at around 31

Henry Hub Natural Gas is closing in on the USD2 levels that was mentioned in the latest Technical Update as a likely price target. A move to the 0.786 retracement at 2.03 seems quite likely.

If breaking above that level (2.03) the strong resistance at around 2.17 could be tested.

If Nat Gas is losing upside momentum and closing back below 1.80 previous trough at around 1.52 is likely to be tested

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

The information on or via the website is provided to you by Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. (“Saxo Bank”) for educational and information purposes only. The information should not be construed as an offer or recommendation to enter into any transaction or any particular service, nor should the contents be construed as advice of any other kind, for example of a tax or legal nature.

All trading carries risk. Loses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Saxo Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information provided and shall not be responsible for any errors or omissions or for any losses or damages resulting from the use of such information.

The content of this website represents marketing material and is not the result of financial analysis or research. It has therefore has not been prepared in accordance with directives designed to promote the independence of financial/investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of financial/investment research.

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38
CH-8058
Zürich-Flughafen
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law. 

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.