Month-long sugar slide pauses amid concerns over Brazil’s supply Month-long sugar slide pauses amid concerns over Brazil’s supply Month-long sugar slide pauses amid concerns over Brazil’s supply

Month-long sugar slide pauses amid concerns over Brazil’s supply

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Over the past week, raw cane sugar futures traded in New York have surged more than 8% due to a sudden and potential deterioration in what was previously an ample supply outlook. Last November, sugar prices hit a 12-year high amid tight global supplies after India and Thailand, two major exporters, curbed their supply to protect local stocks and control inflation. However, the prospect of a record sugar crop in Brazil, the world’s top exporter, triggered a month-long price slide, which only paused last week when prices returned to USD 0.175 per pound—a level that has held firm on several occasions since 2022.

Since Friday, prices have jumped back above USD 0.19 per pound following an unprecedented outbreak of fires across sugar-cane fields in Brazil. While it is too early to fully assess the impact, traders expect that global sugar supply may be negatively affected in the coming months until additional production from Thailand and India can contribute to supply, beginning around November.

Bloomberg recently reported: “São Paulo, responsible for producing most of the country’s sugar, is facing a record number of fires due to low humidity and a blistering heat wave. There were as many as 2,000 outbreaks this weekend, according to the sugar cane industry group Orplana. Although subsequent rains have helped reduce the risk of new outbreaks, as much as 60,000 hectares of crop area were affected.”

The overall impact might still be relatively small, with experts suggesting that the burned sugar cane can still be harvested and processed. However, mills will need to act quickly as the cane begins to lose quality just a few days after burning.

The weekly chart suggests some consolidation after prices once again found support around the critical USD 0.175 per pound level. Recent price movements are likely driven by speculators unwinding short positions, which were established in an attempt to push prices below this support level. For the rally to indicate a true turnaround, the price would need a weekly close above USD 0.19 per pound, followed by reclaiming the USD 0.2070 per pound level, a break above which may confirm a double bottom formation.

Source: Saxo

Recent commodity articles:

27 Aug 2024: Libya supply disruptions propel crude prices higher 
26 Aug 2024: 
COT: Funds boost metals investment as dollar long positions halve amid weakness
23 Aug 2024: 
Commodities Weekly: Metal strength counterbalancing energy and grains
22 Aug 2024:
 Persistent supply contraints keep cocoa prices elevated
21 Aug 2024: 
Weak demand focus steers crude towards key support
19 Aug 2024: 
Resilient gold bulls drive price to fresh record above USD 2500
19 Aug 2024: 
COT Buyers return to crude as gold stays strong; Historic yen buying
16 Aug 2024: 
Commodities weekly: Gold strong as China weakness drags on other markets
9 Aug 2024: 
Commodities weekly: Calm returns to markets, including raw materials
8 Aug 2024: 
Sentiment-driven crude sell-off eases, allowing traders to focus on supply risks
7 Aug 2024: 
Limited short-selling interest observed during copper's recent aggressive correction
6 Aug 2024: 
Video: What factors are fueling the current market turmoil and gold's response
5 Aug 2024: 
COT: Broad commodities sell-off gains momentum; Forex traders seek JPY and CHF
5 Aug 2024: 
Commodities: Position reduction in focus as volatility spikes
2 Aug 2024: 
Widespread commodities decline in July, with gold as the notable exception
31 July 2024: 
Crude's month-long slide halted by fresh Mideast worries
30 July 2024: 
Record demand explains gold's current resilience
29 July 2024: 
COT: Energy and metals selling cuts hedge fund long to four-month low
4 July 2024: 
Sluggish US economic indicators boost demand for gold and silver
4 July 2024: 
Podcast Special: Quarterly Outlook - Sandcastle Economics
2 July 2024: 
Quarterly Outlook - Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
1 July 2024: 
COT: Crude long builds ahead of Q3 while grains selling accelerate

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38
CH-8058
Zürich-Flughafen
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law. 

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.