COT: Crude long builds ahead of Q3 while grains selling accelerates COT: Crude long builds ahead of Q3 while grains selling accelerates COT: Crude long builds ahead of Q3 while grains selling accelerates

COT: Crude long builds ahead of Q3 while grains selling accelerates

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Key points:

  • Positions and changes made by speculators in commodities and forex in the week to June 25
  • In forex large but mixed flows left the dollar long near unchanged
  • In commodities buyers focused on crude oil, gas oil, platinum and sugar, and sellers on grains, natural gas and copper
  • Gold continues to see limited selling appetite with prices holding well above entry levels 


In forex, the flows during the reporting week to June 25 were generally large but also very mixed, with speculators' sale of 16.4k contracts of EUR (USD 2.2 billion equivalent) and 26k JPY ($2.1 billion) being partly offset by strong buying of the antipodeans and CAD. The Aussie short was reduced by 18k contracts (USD 1.2 billion) to 23.7k, the smallest in three years, while the Kiwi long at 26.6k is the largest since 2018. Adding to these the buying of 25.5k contracts of CAD (USD 1.9 billion) and the overall dollar long against eight IMM forex futures ended up near unchanged on the week at an eight-week high of USD 25.6 billion

Non-commercial IMM futures positions versus the dollar in week to June 25


The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, covered the week to June 25 when the Bloomberg Commodity index dropped 1.2% with losses seen across all sectors, except softs where gains were seen in sugar, coffee, and cotton. Once again, however, the grains sector came under pressure from improved conditions in key growing areas and ample supply being left over from last year’s production season. Elsewhere, the energy sector traded mixed with losses in natural gas offsetting small gains elsewhere. The metal sector continued to consolidate with gold holding above key support while copper has given back around half the strong gains recorded earlier this year.

Hedge funds responded to these developments by adding length to crude oil, gas oil, platinum, and sugar while selling was concentrated in grains, followed by natural gas, copper, cocoa, and hogs.

Managed money long, short and net commodities positions in the week to June 25
Energy: Speculators rush back into crude oil extended to a third week and during this time the net long has almost doubled to 394k contracts. Last week the buying was concentrated in WTI, resulting in the net long jumping 24% to 236k. Elsewhere the gas oil long reached a 2-year high at 99.4k contracts, while ULSD and natural gas were sold.
Metals: A small 5k lots small reduction in the gold long highlighting a continued reluctancy from funds to reduce exposure entered into at much lower levels back in March. The silver net long was left unchanged after long and short both got reduced, the platinum long doubled after recent selling, while the copper long was cut for a fifth week, this time driven by an increase in the gross short.
Grains selling accelerated led by corn (-86k) followed by the soybeans complex (-59k) and wheat (-26k). The BCOM Grains sector slumped 4.2% during the reporting week on improved crop weather in Russia, and expectations US quarterly stocks would show a large carryover to the next crop year.
In softs, the main change was another big reduction in the sugar short, continued buying of coffee and a small reduction in the cotton short which recently reached a near five-year high.

What is the Commitments of Traders report?

The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class.

Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and other
Financials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and other
Forex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators)

The main reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of speculators, such as hedge funds and trend-following CTA's are:

  • They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged
  • This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments
  • It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming

Do note that this group tends to anticipate, accelerate, and amplify price changes that have been set in motion by fundamentals. Being followers of momentum, this strategy often sees this group of traders buy into strength and sell into weakness, meaning that they are often found holding the biggest long near the peak of a cycle or the biggest short position ahead of a through in the market.

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (
Full disclaimer (

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38

Contact Saxo

Select region


All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law. 

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.