Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
With the Brent Crude oil future testing the October 2021 peak at USD86.70/brl a strong bullish move could have come to a temporary halt.
A likely rejection could reverse the mood and initiate a 38.2 correction down to around USD80
However, regardless of a such a possible correction the medium term trend would still be up. There is no divergence on RSI indicating we could see Brent moving higher after a likely correction.
After the implosion of the Natural Gas bubble, Gas has seen strong resistance in bouncing back above the d USD 100/MWh mark. Last week there wasn’t even strength to get through the 55 SMA. It seems like we should expect Dutch Gas to be range bound between USD 65 and 100 for some time.
Carbon could be in the process of forming a corrective symmetrical triangle. Look out for break out of the likely patterns two trend lines. However, the most important level to look out for is the strong support at around EUR74. A break below could lead to a collapse in prices down to around EUR65-60.
If this is indeed a corrective triangle a bullish break out should be expected and new highs are in the cards.
For more than a year Rotterdam Coal has seen a steady decline. But that decline could be about to come to an end, at least short term. There is massive divergence over the past couple of months indicating Coal could be in an exhaustive bearish move and a rebound to EUR 60-65 could be imminent. No bottom and reversal pattern is drawn however, but the down trend is weakening
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.