Technical Update - US 10-year yields bounce from key support. Euro Bund rejected at resistance Technical Update - US 10-year yields bounce from key support. Euro Bund rejected at resistance Technical Update - US 10-year yields bounce from key support. Euro Bund rejected at resistance

Technical Update - US 10-year yields bounce from key support. Euro Bund rejected at resistance

Bonds 3 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

US 10-year yields bounce from key support at 3.50%. Bounce is in the cards
US 10-year Treasury Note future rejected at key resistance forming a top and reversal pattern
Euro Bund future rejected at key resistance. Next few days could be decisive

US 10-year yields dipped just below the key support at 3.50% reaching 2.0 projection of the double top pattern formed in October-November (green Fibo on the chart)
Yields seem to be ready for a rebound despite no RSI divergence. A rebound that could take US 10-year yields to key resistance at 3.90%
However, if Yields close below 3.50% further downside pressure is likely to around 3.22 i.e., the 0.618 retracement and close to 200 daily SMA. 
For the medium-term scenario see previous analysis: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/bonds/ta-us-10-year-yields-16112022

Source all charts and data: Saxo Group

The US 10-year Treasury Note future has formed an Evening Doji pattern on daily time period (circled) after being rejected at the 100 daily SMA. The pattern indicates a top and reversal. If the T-Note future does not move higher to close above 114 29/32 it could drop to support at 111 31/32.
A close below that level the future will be looking at October-November lows around 109.
I close above 114 2/32 will cancel the top and reversal pattern with potential to around 117.

Euro Bund future has been rising in a channel/wedge like formation only to be rejected at 142.62 resistance level. A close above 142.62 is likely to pave the way for Euro Bund to climb to resistance at around 149.25. The declining daily 100 SMA will provide some resistance
There is divergence on RSI indicating the rebound could be over.
However, it needs to be confirmed by the Future breaking below its lower rising trendline followed by a close below 139.78.

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-ch/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-ch/legal/saxo-select/saxoselect-disclaimer)

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
Beethovenstrasse 33
CH-8002
Zurich
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law.

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.