Details Cookies
Cookie Policy

This website uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience by enabling, optimising and analysing site operations, as well as to provide personalised ad content and allow you to connect to social media. By choosing “Accept all” you consent to the use of cookies and the related processing of personal data. Select “Manage consent” to manage your consent preferences. You can change your preferences or retract your consent at any time via the cookie policy page. Please view our cookie policy here and our privacy policy here

background image background image background image

Structural long USDTRY, trust Erdogan to be Erdogan

Trade View
Strategic Trade / Buy

Instrument: USDTRY
Price Target: 50% at 5.00 and 50% at 5.24
Market Price: 4.574


Note: this trade view was originally flagged on this week’s Macro Monday Call on July 10.

At the end of the day, President Erdogan won an election where he campaigned on single-digit inflation, based on lowering interest rates. There is a high probability that he ends up meddling in the independence of the Turkish central bank. At the same time, the country is reeling from running hot on government influenced stimulus (part of the re-election campaign) which may not be curbed post the elections.  


Entry: 4.574
Target: 5.00 and 5.24
Time Horizon: Strategic


USDTRY 5-year chart.                                                                                                                         Source: Saxo Bank
Management And Risk Description:

Position is circa  0.25x capital, so for the Macro Monday book that is circa $2.5m

Key risk is obviously broader-based USD liquidation, Erdogan doing better than expected and lower US rates. 

Trading Plan

Targeting 50% at 5.00 and 50% at 5.24. Could potentially be looking to add to the lira short if we pull back to 4.50 levels. 

A compiled overview of Trade Views provided on can be found here (


Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed you initial investment.

Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Combined Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000

Contact Saxo

Select region


The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.