What will happen in 2024

Søren Otto Simonsen
Senior Investment Editor

As we leave the first month of 2024 behind us, it makes sense to ponder what may happen in this new year. Therefore, we've pitted our Head of SaxoStrats, Peter Garnry, and our Chief investment officer, Steen Jakobsen to discuss just that.

The overarching question for 2024 is whether we will have a global recession or not. But apart from that, there's ample of questions to be answered; How will central banks deal with rates and inflation? How may Japan and China fare? To what extent will the massive amount of political elections that we are bound to see this year impact the financial markets? Will AI take over the world or become an afterthought?

These are just some of the questions, you can get our experts' answers to in this video.

Happy watching.

Here you can read a deep-dive of Peter Garnry's thoughts on the equity markets in 2024.
Here you can read Ole S. Hansen's thoughts around the commodity markets in 2024 and 2023 respectively.
Here you can read some short considerations from our asset class experts about how they think 2024 may pan out and what they thought of 2023.

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q2

2024: The wasted year

Macro: It’s all about elections and keeping status quo

Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.

FX: The rate cut race shifts into high gear

As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.

Equities: The AI and obesity rally is defying gravity

Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.

Fixed income: Keep calm, seize the moment

With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.

Commodities: Is the correction over?

Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.

Macro: It’s all about elections and keeping status quo
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
FX: The rate cut race shifts into high gear
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Equities: The AI and obesity rally is defying gravity
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
Fixed income: Keep calm, seize the moment
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities: Is the correction over?
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.

You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.

Try the Demo

Open Account

Disclaimer

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/.

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
- Analysis Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/analysis-disclaimer/saxo-analysis-disclaimer)
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)

Manage consent

Details Cookies

Cookie Policy

Necessary

What will happen in 2024

Share

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q2

01 / 05

Macro: It’s all about elections and keeping status quo

FX: The rate cut race shifts into high gear

Equities: The AI and obesity rally is defying gravity

Fixed income: Keep calm, seize the moment

Commodities: Is the correction over?

Macro: It’s all about elections and keeping status quo

FX: The rate cut race shifts into high gear

Equities: The AI and obesity rally is defying gravity

Fixed income: Keep calm, seize the moment

Commodities: Is the correction over?

Your browser cannot display this website correctly.