Expectations for 2024: Rates and recessions(?) are key Expectations for 2024: Rates and recessions(?) are key Expectations for 2024: Rates and recessions(?) are key

Expectations for 2024: Rates and recessions(?) are key

Søren Otto Simonsen

Senior Investment Editor

2023 was an interesting year in the financial markets. The long-awaited recession was nowhere to be found while interest rates kept climbing, AI hype grew, and gold and oil came into focus. As we enter 2024, the big questions revolve around whether we will see a recession in the new year and what actions that will require from central banks. Add to that increasing macro-political uncertainty as the Ukraine and Gaza conflicts continue and a host of elections in, for example, the US and UK, and we have a 2024 where it seems like anything can happen in the financial markets.

To help you get the best possible start to the year, we've asked our asset class experts – in short – what the most significant event in 2023 was and how they see 2024 in terms of performance, trends, and what investors should look out for within their asset class.

Biggest events in 2023

Equities by Peter Garnry

"The snowballing hype cycle around generative AI systems such as ChatGPT, which has pushed the S&P 500 index concentration to the highest on record."

Bonds by Althea Spinozzi

"A buoyant economy in the U.S. was by far the biggest surprise of 2023. That enabled the Federal Reserve to hike rates beyond markets’ expectations."

Forex by Charu Chanana

"A delayed recession was by far the biggest surprise of 2023, and how long the higher-for-longer lasted."

Commodities by Ole S. Hansen

"The resilience of gold during a period of sharply rising bond yields and the oil market battle between OPEC and speculators looking for lower prices."

Expectations for 2024

in terms of 1) performance, 2) trends that will drive the market and, 3) what investors should look out for:

Equities by Peter Garnry

  1. "The big kicker in terms of performance is whether we get a recession or not, which I believe is around 50/50."
  2. "I expect that AI and green transformation will be key equity themes in 2024 with Fed policy rates and the Chinese economy being important factors."
  3. "Equity investors should pay attention to whether or not we get a recession as that will be a prime indicator of where the asset class is heading."

Bonds by Althea Spinozzi

  1. "I expect the US yield curve to continue to steepen and high-grade bonds to outperform risky assets."
  2. "A slowing economy, and less aggressive monetary policies will eventually benefit bond markets."
  3. "Fixed income investors should pay attention to inflation, growth, fiscal deficits, and how central banks react to an ever-changing economic and political environment."

Forex by Charu Chanana

  1. "The dollar is likely to come under pressure in 2024 as Fed formally signals a dovish pivot, but we need to see how growth outside the US transcends."
  2. "Carry trades have been a big focus in 2023, but global rate cut cycles will make carry a less attractive forex strategy in 2024."
  3. "A wild card next year is geopolitics, especially conflicts and elections, where voting against the incumbent seems to have become a norm and that could have ramifications for forex."

Commodities by Ole S. Hansen

  1. "2024 could be the year of the metals, not least gold, silver and copper, driven by lower bond yields, rate cuts and supply disruptions."
  2. "The economic outlook for China and the US and whether the US will see a soft or hard landing is key for commodities such as energy."
  3. "Investors should be aware that commodities with tight supply can rise even if the economic outlook looks less rosy."

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/.

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
- Analysis Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/analysis-disclaimer/saxo-analysis-disclaimer)
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000

Contact Saxo

Select region


The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-au/about-us/awards

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.