Only binary outcomes as we have crossed beyond the volatility event horizon.
Saxo Market Call
Summary: Today we look at US equity market that has gone over the edge technically and what could come next, given that we have crossed into a volatility event horizon that seems to almost guarantee either a further and accelerating swoon or an almost equally volatile market bounce. We also look into contributing factors that both aggravated the scale of the bull market off the pandemic low and why a sizable percentage of the gains since then are in mortal danger - especially due to the limitations of the physical world and the spiking price of energy, which policy makers can't so easily address as they can liquidity. Today's pod features Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen, Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.