Tension all around
Saxo Market Call
Summary: Today we look at the tense situation in markets after the hot US October CPI print on October and then yesterday's awkward bank holiday-warped session, as well as whether Fed expectations are really driving the US dollar, not to mention China maintaining its currency near recent lows in USDCNH. Elsewhere, we look at the very tense situation in Europe as natural gas prices refuse to continue lower and the potential for geopolitical mishaps on the Polish/Belarus border and/or in Ukraine. Also: the still busy earnings calendar for the week ahead, which features some of the highest profile Chinese tech names, as well as the macro calendar, where we highlight a potentially interesting speech from Fed Vice Chair Clarida late next week. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.