Podcast: Has the market already full priced a Fed tightening cycle?
Saxo Market Call
Summary: Today we look at yesterday's sharp rally in US equities that completely reversed the move from Friday. Elsewhere, long US treasury yields rose sharply just after posting new lows, while the moves at the front end of the yield curve (Fed expectations) and the rally in the US dollar since last week's pivotal FOMC meeting have largely stuck. We also look into the effects of the Fed's 5-bp hike on excess reserves and ponder whether the market has already fully priced a Fed rate hike cycle. A focus on equities on NVidia and its possible vulnerability in light of recent weakness in the cryptocurrency space, especially on China's crackdown. Today's pod with Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.