Podcast: Flying high, but spotting a few fiscal clouds on the horizon
Saxo Market Call
Summary: Today we note the continued bid tone in US equities and strong momentum there while strong inflationary pressures in China as shown in a high March PPI reading there overnight suggest policy is to remain tight, restraining sentiment. Looking beyond the near term, one fresh source of longer term concern is the future of US fiscal policy, given evidence that "king-maker" Democratic senator Joe Manchin is against ending the filibuster, which would require difficult bipartisan cooperation if new fiscal measures are to see the light of day. A look at a new basket of Chinese consumer stocks, soaring corn prices, oil, gold, patterns in FX and more. On today's call were Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.