Senior Investment Editor
Summary: As the beginning of May marks the celebration of international worker’s day, we look back at a 2023 where market performance, above anything else, has been random, because no one really knows what to believe. So, there’s almost an equal chance of positive returns from working hard to try and find the right instruments, or hardly working and investing passively. April performance is no different, although a positive start to the earnings season has sprinkled green over the markets.
Global equities returned 1.6% in April. Comparatively, April was a muted month in terms of market performance. In fact, we need to go all the way back to May last year to find a smaller movement in either direction for global equities. As evident from below, it’s pretty much across the board that performance has been treading water compared to the last few months. While this – on the face of it – could suggest that everything is calm and quiet, it’s rather an expression of investors not knowing which leg to stand on rather than an expression of the markets being a sunny Sunday ride.
And a muted performance like that really shows the dichotomies that are challenging markets and making it so hard to figure out if we’re going up or down. Regionally, the US and Europe show strength, returning 1.5 and 2.0 pct. respectively, while Asia (-1.1%) and Emerging Markets (-1.3%) are pulled down by, especially, China’s challenges with growth concerns and geopolitical confrontations.
You can see similar conflicting points in other places in the financial world. For instance, macro figures where the general question is whether there’s a need for increasing interest rates or whether they have already been raised too much. Because inflation is still roaring, while earnings, job reports and other key numbers remain strong.
Even within sectors, April performance volatility was less than we’ve seen in a while, with no sector rising more than four pct. or falling more than one. Energy was the worst performing sector, probably due to the seasonal effect of milder spring weather and the decreased need for energy to heat up homes.
The best performing sectors were materials, consumer discretionary and real estate, all climbing more than three pct. Referring to the previous discussion about interest rates and whether they should be going up or down, the fact that consumer discretionary and real estate are among the best performing sectors indicates that consumers continue to spend money. Information technology, which is always a sector in focus, also performed well (2.9%), especially helped by positive earnings from a company like Meta.
The Global bond performance index we track in this series increased with 0.5 pct. with corporates increasing slightly more than sovereigns. Like the rest of the financial market, this is mainly an expression of the insecurity in terms of whether markets should be moving one way or the other.
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Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
