Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
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Macro Dragon: RBA Mins, Asia Risk-on Tues, Snowflake
Kay Van-Petersen
Global Macro Strategist
Summary: Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.
(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)
Macro Dragon: RBA Mins, China Monthly Growth Data, Asia Risk-on Tues, Snowflake
Top of Mind…
- As we touched on the Dragon’s wk ahead piece yest, whilst econ data is light it is central banks galore with rate decisions out of Fed, BoJ, BoE, ECB, SARB, RNB, BCB, BKID to name a few (the last four respectively represent South Africa, Russian, Brazil & Indonesia).
- Shortly we will be getting RBA minutes from their Sep meeting – if memory serves correctly, the minutes have not really been a big mover of aussie lately.
- Perhaps more importantly this Asia Tuesday morning will be the monthly growth figures out of China. Later on in the day as Europe comes in we will get Avg. Earnings & jobs data out of the UK, and more importantly ZEW readings out of the bloc & in particular, Germany.
- North America will see manufacturing Sales out of Canada, with the US seeing a range of things: Empire State Manufacturing, Import Prices, Capacity Utilization & Industrial Production.
- Overnight session saw decent risk-on with SPX 3384 & Nas-100 11278 up +1.3% & +1.7% respectively.
- The likes of copper 306.65, silver 27.25 & gold 1958 also traded higher at +1.1%, +1.5% & 0.8% respectively.
- Brent pulled back by c. 20bp to 37.26, whilst the USD dropped by 30bp as the DXY closed down at 93.0460
- G10 FX wise looks likes biggest beneficiaries of the USD weakness were the kiwi, yen & euro.
- Would expect the o/n risk-on to flavor the price action in today's Asia Pacific session.
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Worth Making Some Time For…
- Snowflake enters equity market with red hot valuation Peter weighs in on the first pure listed cloud player that is part of the c. $7bn in IPOs this wk out of the US – with interesting implications to the valuations & strategic business models of Alibaba & Amazon (i.e. spin-offs?).
- Chart of the Week : Dissecting the inflation puzzle A fav. of many of our clients, Dembik weekly weigh in, on what is standing out from an economics perspective. So far Dembik who is heavy on signals & light on noise, does not see inflation entering the risk-zone anytime soon.
- Fixed Income Markets: The Week Ahead Althea fully back in the duration seat, this should be part of the weekly staple. She also highlights the situation in Turkey potentially having ripple effects for other EMs which like most things creates its own set of opportunities & challenges. Turkey could prove a catalyst for a broader emerging-markets crash
- Our daily Saxo Market Call: Global equities start week on a strong note
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Start-to-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.
This is the way
KVP
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