Macro Dragon: RBA Mins, Asia Risk-on Tues, Snowflake
Summary: Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.
Macro Dragon: RBA Mins, China Monthly Growth Data, Asia Risk-on Tues, Snowflake
Top of Mind…
- As we touched on the Dragon’s wk ahead piece yest, whilst econ data is light it is central banks galore with rate decisions out of Fed, BoJ, BoE, ECB, SARB, RNB, BCB, BKID to name a few (the last four respectively represent South Africa, Russian, Brazil & Indonesia).
- Shortly we will be getting RBA minutes from their Sep meeting – if memory serves correctly, the minutes have not really been a big mover of aussie lately.
- Perhaps more importantly this Asia Tuesday morning will be the monthly growth figures out of China. Later on in the day as Europe comes in we will get Avg. Earnings & jobs data out of the UK, and more importantly ZEW readings out of the bloc & in particular, Germany.
- North America will see manufacturing Sales out of Canada, with the US seeing a range of things: Empire State Manufacturing, Import Prices, Capacity Utilization & Industrial Production.
- Overnight session saw decent risk-on with SPX 3384 & Nas-100 11278 up +1.3% & +1.7% respectively.
- The likes of copper 306.65, silver 27.25 & gold 1958 also traded higher at +1.1%, +1.5% & 0.8% respectively.
- Brent pulled back by c. 20bp to 37.26, whilst the USD dropped by 30bp as the DXY closed down at 93.0460
- G10 FX wise looks likes biggest beneficiaries of the USD weakness were the kiwi, yen & euro.
- Would expect the o/n risk-on to flavor the price action in today's Asia Pacific session.
Worth Making Some Time For…
- Snowflake enters equity market with red hot valuation Peter weighs in on the first pure listed cloud player that is part of the c. $7bn in IPOs this wk out of the US – with interesting implications to the valuations & strategic business models of Alibaba & Amazon (i.e. spin-offs?).
- Chart of the Week : Dissecting the inflation puzzle A fav. of many of our clients, Dembik weekly weigh in, on what is standing out from an economics perspective. So far Dembik who is heavy on signals & light on noise, does not see inflation entering the risk-zone anytime soon.
- Fixed Income Markets: The Week Ahead Althea fully back in the duration seat, this should be part of the weekly staple. She also highlights the situation in Turkey potentially having ripple effects for other EMs which like most things creates its own set of opportunities & challenges. Turkey could prove a catalyst for a broader emerging-markets crash
- Our daily Saxo Market Call: Global equities start week on a strong note
Start-to-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.
This is the wayKVP
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.