Macro Dragon: Happy 4th of July...
Summary: Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.
Macro Dragon: Happy 4th of July...
Top of Mind…
- The potent week continues, with the US seeing its last trading day today, prior to being out tmr due to the 4th of July Independence day on Sat. Over here in Singapore, the KVP household be marking the occasion with a dinner where we are treating one of our favorite couples. Celebration + Giving = More Gratitude.
- Either way, a lot of steak & pasta is going down this Sat evening & for those of you not in the loop, we’ve only been able to get out to eat at café & restaurants over the last 2 wks… so going out even just for a coffee, feels like a vacation & blessing. Life is so relative & gratitude – as well as empathy – can be found in the most atomic of settings.
- It’s the Jerry Springer Effect (JSE), all over again… Speaking of JSE, we’ve not had a good war story on the Macro Dragon for a while… they will come…
- As to the FOMC minutes from just a few hours ago, here is the link – all we can say here on the Dragon is the equity markets closed up in the US +0.50% 3116 & the Dollar was weaker on the day -0.20% 97.15.
- USDRUB is looking interesting, not looked at this puppy for a while… yet feel there is something there… that spike up may have been unwarranted, i.e. did Russia really incentivize the Taliban for killing American & Afghan soldiers… & can that be proven?
- Hard to see Trump capitulating all of a sudden on relations with Putin… get the feeling that Trump has painted himself in a corner with his own hands… & with just four months to go… the probability of something left field has increased… with biggest risk…
- Continuing to be Phase-One deal break with China… hence we keep watching USDCNH, which at 7.0683 is towards the lower end of recent 30 day trading range of 7.1965 – 7.041
- As to those that concerned on HK markets & protest arrests, look at a name we’ve flagged before on the Macro Dragon… 388HK (HK Exchange, we flagged this at just under the HKD 300 lvl, we are now c. +13% higher at HKD 337).
- Again the theme of US China listed names relisting in HK, as well as future China IPOs staying home & in Asia… is massively bullish for HK & regional capital markets & of course CH/HK brokers… No one is paying attention to this, because the consensus view is that HK is dead because of CH – nothing could be further from the truth in regards to capital markets & it remaining a bastion of finance globally.
- Just how London, New York, Tokyo, Singapore & Shanghai have their perks & costs – so does Hong Kong… at the end of the day, everything has a skew… regardless of whether you are aware of it or not… & if you are not aware of it… chances are, the skew is not in the your favor…
- Last, yet certainly not least – to those with American ties, directly or indirectly, loved ones, family, business associates, friends, frenemies… let me wish you all an early happy independence day for all, regardless of gender, class, race, party or creed. Live Strong.
To Keep In Mind Today
- JP: Monetary Base +6.0%e 4.2%e 3.9%p
- AU: Trade Balance + Early Doors tmr morning AIG Construction Index
- EZ: PPI, Unemployment Rate,
- US: AHE, NFP 3037K e 2509K p, U/R, Jobless Claims, Trade Balance, Factory Orders, Natural Gas Storage
- CA: Mfg. PMI 40.6p
Start-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.
This is the way
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook Q3 2022: The Runaway Train
- Central banks' attempts to kill inflation is a paradigm shift, which could end in a deep recession.
Tangible assets and profitable growth are the winnersWith US equities officially in a bear market, the big question is where and when is the bottom in the current drawdown?
Understanding the lack of investment appetite among oil majorsThe everything rally seen in recent quarters has become more uneven, as its strength is driven by commodities in short supply.
The pressure is on as the wind leaves the sailsWith cryptocurrencies in sharp decline, are we entering a crypto winter or is the bear market a healthy clean-up of the crypto space?
Why the Fed can never catch up and what turns the US dollar lower?Many other central banks are set to eventually outpace the Fed in hiking rates, taking their real interest rates to levels higher than the Fed will achieve.
Bank of Japan: Swimming against the tideThe Japanese economy has gone from the age of deflation to rapidly rising prices in no time, leaving the Bank of Japan in a pickle.
Green transformation detour and bear market hibernationWith the impending risk of global econonomic derailment, we share the five things investors need to consider in this new half year.
Crisis redux for the eurozone?Whether there's going to be a recession in Europe or not, the path towards a stable economy will be agonizing.
Technical Outlook: Gold, Oil and a remarkable multi-decade perspective on EquitiesThe Nasdaq bubble pattern, USDJPY resistance, crude oil uptrend losing steam and the technical outlook for USD.
China: the train of new development paradigm left the station two years agoChina is transiting to a new development paradigm, as they are hit by deteriorating terms of trade, a slower global economy and an uncertain future while continuing attempts to contain the pandemic.