Macro Dragon WK # 27: Noisy Week Ahead with Month/Quarter/1st Half-end plus NFP Friday! Macro Dragon WK # 27: Noisy Week Ahead with Month/Quarter/1st Half-end plus NFP Friday! Macro Dragon WK # 27: Noisy Week Ahead with Month/Quarter/1st Half-end plus NFP Friday!

Macro Dragon WK # 27: Noisy Week Ahead with Month/Quarter/1st Half-end plus NFP Friday!

Macro 2 minutes to read
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Quasi-Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.

(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon WK # 27: Noisy Week Ahead with Month / Quarter / 1st Half-end plus NFP Friday!

Top of Mind…

  • TGIM & welcome to WK #27
  • We did a “Love It” piece on Brazil last wk: Macro Dragon Reflections: Brazil, Commodity Rich, +210M pop, +$1.4T GDP, Hawkish BCB, 2022 Political Elections & Consistently Punching Below its Weight. Love it!
  • Where we highlighted the vast underperformance of Brazilian equities vs. their EM counterparts, as well as the Brazilian Real – both of which seem set to be breaking out to big levels of appreciation.
  • Its going to be a Noise > Signal week on a cross-asset basis, just given the significance of potential month/quarter/1Half flows, that also ends with the US NFP number on Fri (700K e 559K p).
  • The NFP could be interesting from a variety of different factors, the risk should be to the upside & yet we still have not seen a significant beat in a while.
  • A +1M number is likely to see knee-jerk USD higher, as well as US yields, with a likely headwind for commodities & 50/50 effect on US equities.
  • An in-line number 600-800K likely will be a snoozie.
  • A big miss, is actually really probably where the real tail-risk is… as it would be that much more unexpected given that federal subsidies expired across half the states in Jun. So if we print sub 400K, we should get USD & US yields lower, CMDs higher, plus decent pop up in equities.
  • Natural interpretations here are – hastening, slowing down or no effect on Fed skew towards normalization. How we are going to get from tapering $120B a month, to zero & hiking by E-2022 is a mystery to KVP. If there were two things we learned from the GFC when it comes to monetary policy: One – there are no ‘temporary measures’ & Two – there is no increase in the CPI, there is only rampant asset class inflation.
  • So this is all a game within the Meta Game of an ever increasing MMT campaign from both the MP & FP side…
  • +15% is what everyone needs to remember. +15% is the CAGR of the G4 Central Bank balance sheet expansion since 2008. In other words, the supply of fiat from just the G4, is increasing by +15% a year – that is your hurdle to just break-even.
  • So next time you’re looking at a stock & talking valuation, or asking for funding for your start up… keep in mind that capital is the commodity. $1M in funding in 2007, is +$7M in 2021… Unicorns are not what they used to be.
  • The allocation of capital to talent & compelling unique investment opportunities is really the juice & asset.

Rest of the Week & Other Reflections

  • Econ Data: Whilst we got final PMIs across the board & even an ISM Mfg. number, its really all about the NFP data out of the US on Fri. 700K is the expectation from a previous print of 559K, so far we’ve not seen any beats that can match the -634K miss from the release in May.
  • We know that over half the states had their federal subsidies expiring over this month of Jun, with most of the other half set to expire in Sep 6. So again, far from a clear picture in regards to the jobs coming back – yet intuitively one has to think it should be chunky, rather than a linear uptrend.
  • CB: No major central bank scheduled rate decisions. Worth appreciating the step-up in hikes from Russia +50bp, Brazil +75bp, Mexico +25bp (surprise), etc. The monetary divergence theme is going to create some interesting investment pockets.     
  • Worth also noting that since the Fed pivot towards making some moves in tapering on 15 Jun, only two major EM FXs (BRL & RUB) are outperforming vs. the USD.
  • Fed speak: Quite a few Fed speakers including Barkin, Quarles, Bostic.
  • ECB|EUR: Lagarde speaking twice on Tue & Thu.
  • RBNZ|NZD: Orr set to speak on Statement of Intent on Tue. Here is the link from the last one from Jul 2020.
  • Hols: Italy out on Tue, Cad out on Thu.      
  • Dragon Interviews U-Tube Channel for easier play-ability… Check out our recent Crypto Interview with The Spartan’s Group Casper B. Johansen & yes, the increased volume for regulation coming out of the US is actually a massively positive structural aspect for the space. Translation: Regulation of Crypto = Acceptance of Crypto.


Start<>End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity | Process > Outcome | Sizing > Position.

This is The Way



Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (
- Analysis Disclaimer (
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000

Contact Saxo

Select region


The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.