Macro Dragon: Week #18 - Month End, Final PMIs, Long WKDs, BoJ & Fed... Macro Dragon: Week #18 - Month End, Final PMIs, Long WKDs, BoJ & Fed... Macro Dragon: Week #18 - Month End, Final PMIs, Long WKDs, BoJ & Fed...

Macro Dragon: Week #18 - Month End, Final PMIs, Long WKDs, BoJ & Fed...

Macro 2 minutes to read
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.

(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon: Week #18 - Month End, Final PMIs, BoJ, Fed, ECB & Long Wkds... 


Top of Mind…


  • This week is going to be dominated by finals PMIs, including ISM mfg. figures out of the US, before culminating in a 1 May public holiday for most of the world (ex US, CA, AU, NZ)
  • We still get continued focus on US earnings, with a lot of big names due this wk including Amazing which has been making all time highs & is now valued at $1.2 trillion
  • Holidays: NZ out today, JP out Wed, most mkts shut on Fri…
  • Economic data – a lot on, does it matter? It does not matter until it matters… so far equities continue to live in a hype world of Fed/Treasury wall street bailouts & complete ignorance on the fact that we are not getting back to a Jan 2020 world, in 6months let along 1-2 months. This is not solely a 1-2Q drag… there are potential ripples here that can cascade epic-ally
  • US: Trade Balance, Whole Sale Inventories, CB Consumer Confidence, 1st cut on 1Q GDP print -3.9%e 2.1%p, Pending Oil Sales, Wed is of course Crude Oil Inventories where we are likely to see ATHs again post the 19.2 from two weeks back. Obviously Thu is jobless claims that could take us to +30m jobless Americans in just 7wks – thats c. 20% of labor force & likely directly affects +100m Americans (the families of the 30m) & indirectly affects the rest of the 330m – i.e. are you going to go out spending right, left & center when so far 1 in 6 Americans workers are out of a job. We also get core PCE, personal income, Chicago PMI, Final Mfg. PMI & ISM Mfg. PMI.    
  • CH: Mfg. PMI 51.0e 52.0p, Non-Mfg. PMI 52.8e 52.3p
  • EZ: Flash CPI, Flash GDP -3.3%e +1.0%p, Unemployment Rate,
  • JP: Unemployment claims, BoJ Core CPI, Retail Sales, Final Mfg. PMI
  • Central banks: We got the BoJ out this morning Asia – no key takeaways from KVP, at the end of the day we know central banks are going to be the doctors that will keep pumping unlimited morphine into the body of the economy, no matter how each successive hit gets weaker & weaker. So whether or not they formally announce they are all in – they always were… interestingly enough yen is strengthening off the back of this.

One last point, BoJ / Japan set the bell curve of where debt lvls & central bank BS use is going… they have finished the race…. & KVP can see the USDJPY well south of 100, easily in 3-9months. Just take a step back, we have been around these 107-108 lvls, even with the epic bear squeeze moves in US equites & the dollar still being so strongly bid (imagine when DXY finally breaks?)…. There is likely big trade with stops around 110 & profit targets at a touch higher than 105, then 103, then 100 & save that last clip for braging rights – Dragon’s rule on this, slide your stop loss towards each successive lvl. Also FX vol is lower than morale in a Covid-19 lockdown.

We also have the FOMC this wed (early Thu Asia) where we are likely to see some questions in regards to negative rates, as well as the wall street over Main Street.

Last & most likely least, ECB on Thu - unless of course, they try to come to the rescue of the euro-zone again, given the subpar performance of all the political bobble-heads last wk.

Generally speaking from KVP’s side, the actual central bank meeting are less relevant now than Pre-Covid19… i.e. we know they are all committed to doing whatever it takes & the race to the bottom in the QE infinity game is here to stay for much longer than most people can envisage. What we can look for is hints & planting of the seeds of next potential steps... yield curve inversion, buying equities, bailing out more airlines (through the Treasury), negative rates, etc.  



Start with gratitude & integrity. Make your luck out there. Positioning > Idea. Process > Outcome. 




Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (
- Analysis Disclaimer (
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000

Contact Saxo

Select region


The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.