Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 42 - 3Q Earnings, Brexit, EU Council, NZ Elections, US Stimulus?

Macro 2 minutes to read

Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.


(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 42 - 3Q Earnings, Brexit, EU Council, NZ Elections, US Stimulus?

 

Top of Mind…

  • Happy Monday Folks & Welcome to WK # 42…

  • Hope everyone had an abundant filled wkd

  • What kind of week are you trying to have up ahead?

  • Focus: Again very much still US politics to dominate until the election results are clear, especially given Trump’s Covid-19 & 180 flip (as we postulated) on a stimulus bill. Note the US is out for a long wkd & back in fully on Tues. Still the nomination of ACB to fill RBG seat on the Supreme court should kick off today with a vote expected before Nov.

  • Anything is still possible in regards to potential presidential debates: Dragon’s ring-side coaching to one of the teams is to bin one of the debates, among other advice going forward

  • Whilst the situation is still dynamic, it looks like for Oct 15, Biden is hosting a townhall – given the WH turned down a virtual debate.

  • Whether we will see one more Trump vs. Biden, remains to be seen – it looks like the doctors have cleared Trump to be able to leave the WH, saying he is no longer considered a transmission risk, yet not confirmation about him testing negative for Covid-19 – likely because he still has Covid. Worth noting so far, he seems to be holding up well.

  • It is worth noting that developments on the side of Brexit continue with Oct 15 deadline, yet are not gaining the headlines & focus they normally would.

  • We also have election in NZ, where the incumbent is expected to easily secure the next term. Plus coming Fri & WKD will see IMF meetings whose conclusion will likely be – we need more fiscal, risk to recovery if fiscal stalls, global healthcare framework is needed, etc.

  • Markets: Really all about the Stimulus, the move on Fri was very much on talks that trump wanted a fiscal deal. It’s unclear how much of an effect the kick-off of 3Q earnings will have.

  • Earnings: A number of banks will be reporting their earnings this wk including JPM, Citi, BoA, GS, MS, WTC, UBS & MS. A few other big names are Blackrock, United Health, Honeywell & chipmaker TSM.

  • There are a number of interesting charts to look into, including: lower lows in USDCNH, GBPUSD / Bitcoin / Gold / Silver tactically breaking out higher from recent trading ranges, the emerging market etf (EEM) breaking out higher…

  • …as are Caterpillar [CAT] + Deere & Co [DE]…

  • …with the Nikkei & ASX looking to break-out higher on previous resistance lvls…

  • Economics: Inflation themes wk with key figs out of US, CH + EZ. Also have GER ZEW & Aus jobs data.

  • Central Banks: Indonesia 4.0%e/p, South Koreas 0.50%e/p, Chile 0.50%e/p

    BOE’s Bailey set to speak on Tue 13 Oct 00:00 SGTRBA’s Lowe set to speak on Thu 15 Oct 05:45 SGT

  • Fed Speak: Quarles 3x, Clarida @ 21:00 (Wed 14 Oct), Kaplan 2x & Kashkari

  • Holidays: US & CA out on Mon (12 Oct)

-

Start-to-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.

This is the way 

KVP

Disclaimer

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Pty Ltd prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/.

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
- Analysis Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/analysis-disclaimer/saxo-analysis-disclaimer)
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-au/about-us/awards

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Pty Ltd ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as CFDs and Margin FX products may result in your losses surpassing your initial deposits. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.
Please click here to view our full disclaimer.