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Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 42 - 3Q Earnings, Brexit, EU Council, NZ Elections, US Stimulus?
Kay Van-Petersen
Global Macro Strategist
Summary: Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.
(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)
Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 42 - 3Q Earnings, Brexit, EU Council, NZ Elections, US Stimulus?
Top of Mind…
- Happy Monday Folks & Welcome to WK # 42…
- Hope everyone had an abundant filled wkd
- What kind of week are you trying to have up ahead?
- Focus: Again very much still US politics to dominate until the election results are clear, especially given Trump’s Covid-19 & 180 flip (as we postulated) on a stimulus bill. Note the US is out for a long wkd & back in fully on Tues. Still the nomination of ACB to fill RBG seat on the Supreme court should kick off today with a vote expected before Nov.
- Anything is still possible in regards to potential presidential debates: Dragon’s ring-side coaching to one of the teams is to bin one of the debates, among other advice going forward
- Whilst the situation is still dynamic, it looks like for Oct 15, Biden is hosting a townhall – given the WH turned down a virtual debate.
- Whether we will see one more Trump vs. Biden, remains to be seen – it looks like the doctors have cleared Trump to be able to leave the WH, saying he is no longer considered a transmission risk, yet not confirmation about him testing negative for Covid-19 – likely because he still has Covid. Worth noting so far, he seems to be holding up well.
- It is worth noting that developments on the side of Brexit continue with Oct 15 deadline, yet are not gaining the headlines & focus they normally would.
- We also have election in NZ, where the incumbent is expected to easily secure the next term. Plus coming Fri & WKD will see IMF meetings whose conclusion will likely be – we need more fiscal, risk to recovery if fiscal stalls, global healthcare framework is needed, etc.
- Markets: Really all about the Stimulus, the move on Fri was very much on talks that trump wanted a fiscal deal. It’s unclear how much of an effect the kick-off of 3Q earnings will have.
- Earnings: A number of banks will be reporting their earnings this wk including JPM, Citi, BoA, GS, MS, WTC, UBS & MS. A few other big names are Blackrock, United Health, Honeywell & chipmaker TSM.
- There are a number of interesting charts to look into, including: lower lows in USDCNH, GBPUSD / Bitcoin / Gold / Silver tactically breaking out higher from recent trading ranges, the emerging market etf (EEM) breaking out higher…
- …as are Caterpillar [CAT] + Deere & Co [DE]…
- …with the Nikkei & ASX looking to break-out higher on previous resistance lvls…
- Economics: Inflation themes wk with key figs out of US, CH + EZ. Also have GER ZEW & Aus jobs data.
- Central Banks: Indonesia 4.0%e/p, South Koreas 0.50%e/p, Chile 0.50%e/p
BOE’s Bailey set to speak on Tue 13 Oct 00:00 SGT, RBA’s Lowe set to speak on Thu 15 Oct 05:45 SGT
- Fed Speak: Quarles 3x, Clarida @ 21:00 (Wed 14 Oct), Kaplan 2x & Kashkari
- Holidays: US & CA out on Mon (12 Oct)
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Start-to-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.
This is the way
KVP