Macro Digest: Reaching critical levels in the BTP 10-year yield
Chief Economist & CIO
My friend Andrew Baptiste of Tag618.com, whom I rank among the top three technical analysts in the world, tells me that 2.42–2.45% is the last line of defense in the Italian BTP 10-year yield...
...and we are trading at that level now.
We still recommend my earlier EURCHF short as the best proxy trade here.
We see both the euro (weaker on Italy and Turkey) and CHF (stronger on an explosive industrial production print and a falling balance sheet) working here, and USDCHF is a big sell from a purchasing power parity perspective.
Below we can see an excellent chart from investment research firm GaveKal; we are looking at it now and will put on a new, separate trade if it is triggered.
Let's also take a look at the generic Italian bond curve as well as the weekly bar chart Baptiste sent to me last week:
How worried should we be about an Italian debt crisis? (PIIE.com).
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.