Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 20 November 2023 Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 20 November 2023 Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 20 November 2023

Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 20 November 2023

Macro 3 minutes to read
Saxo Strategy Team

Summary:  US stocks ended last week on a high note as the dollar weakened after dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials strengthened bets that the Federal Reserve has reached the end of its aggressive rate tightening cycle. Asian stocks followed suit overnight with the Nikkei index touching a fresh 33-year high. EM currencies climbed to the highest since February with Renminbi strength supporting commodities like copper and iron ore. Crude oil saw a sharp rebound on Friday amid fresh OPEC cut speculation while bond yields have been edging higher ahead of a USD 16bn 20-year auction. A thin economic calendar today ahead of FOMC minutes Tuesday.

The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.

Equities: Mixed start to the week in Asia with Hang Seng futures up 1.5% and Nikkei 225 futures down 0.8% while both the US and European equity futures are mostly flat. In equities the key event is Nvidia earnings tomorrow after the US market close as Nvidia’s outlook will have a significant impact on sentiment in US technology stocks – read our preview of Nvidia earnings. It is also worth paying attention later today on the US Leading Index figures for October out at 15:00 GMT.

FX: The USD has extended losses through the Asian session today with the DXY touching a fresh September low and challenging the 200-day moving average at 103.62. The lingering effect of last week's Fedspeak and associated re-pricing of Fed rate cuts for 2024 has pressured the USD today. The rebound in oil prices helped NOK to be the best performer in G10 while USDJPY briefly dropped to sub-149 levels. AUDUSD broke resistance at 0.6523, and RBA minutes this week could be a key test along with China measures. EURUSD rose above 1.09 and may get a further push with Moody’s upgrading Portugal and reaffirming Italy’s rating while upgrading its outlook to Stable from Negative. EURGBP down to 0.8750 but could re-test 0.88.

Commodities: Crude oil prices have clawed back last Thursday’s sharp losses with Brent and WTI both back on safer grounds, potentially forcing some additional short covering following last week’s bout of technical selling. Prices recovered late Friday on reports OPEC members were considering additional production cuts when the group meets next weekend. Copper trades up to a nine-week high on continued Yuan strength, China stimulus and Fed peak rate speculation. Gold holds below $2k with silver also taking a breather following last week's 6.5% surge. Chicago grain and soybean futures meanwhile declined on Friday as the prospect of rain in drought-stricken Brazil eased crop concerns.

Fixed income: The 2-year Treasury notes sold off by 5bps on Friday, finishing at 4.89%, on stronger housing data and higher crude oil prices. Traders took some profits on rate-cut bets, further fueling the selling. Today, the attention turns to the 20-year US Treasury auction, a tenor that investors most dislike as it carries high duration, and it is also the most illiquid point in the US yield curve. At its peak, the 20-year US Treasury yield rose to 5.34%, while now it trades at 4.79%. If bidding metrics sensibly improve today, that could be a sign that investors are extending duration, paving the way for a deep rally across the yield curve. However, if demand remains as weak as the latest 30-year auction, it could reignite the bear-steepening of the yield curve. Overall, we continue to favor a bond barbell strategy.

Volatility: The VIX ended last week’s session at its lows, at 13.80 (-0.52 | -3.63%), well on its way to reach the lows of earlier this year (around $12.70). Expected moves for the coming week are: S&P 500 + or – 39.62 | +/- 0.88%, Nasdaq 100 + or – 221.40 | +/- 1.40%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are slightly down this morning at -6.75 (-0.15%) and -51.00 (-0.32%) respectively.

Technical analysis highlights: S&P 500 resistance at 4,540. Nasdaq 100 uptrend stretched but could test 16K. DAX  strong resist at 16K. EURUSD strong resist at 1.0945. USDJPY testing support at 149, a close below support at 147.30. GBPUSD uptrend resistance at 1.2564 -1.26. Gold uptrend but minor correction expected.  WTI Crude oil bouncing from support at 72.65, Brent from 77.24. 10-year T-yields bearish support at 4.36

Macro: UK retail sales unexpectedly fell in October. Retail sales ex-auto fuel was down 0.1% MoM (exp +0.5%, prev -1.3%) and 2.4% YoY (exp -1.5%, prev -1.5%). While weather may have some impact, the print also emphasizes cost of living pressures plaguing the UK economy. China's Loan Prime Rate remained unchanged on Monday according to a People's Bank of China statement, in line with market expectation following the PBOC's decision to keep a key policy rate steady on November 15.

In the news: Ousted OpenAI CEO Altman discusses possible return, mulls new AI venture (Reuters), Portugal Rating Upgraded Two Levels by Moody’s (Moody’s), Argentina elects 'shock therapy' libertarian Javier Milei as president (Reuters), UK’s Hunt says won’t implement tax cuts that fuel inflation (CNBC)

Macro events (all times are GMT): Germany PPI (Oct) exp 0.0% & -11% vs –0.2% & -14.7% prior (0700), US Leading Index (Oct) exp –0.7% vs –0.7% prior (1500), US to sell $16 bln 20-year bonds (1800), Fed’s Barkin speaks on Fox Business (1700)

Earnings events: Agilent Technologies (aft-mkt), Zoom Video (aft-mkt), and Compass Group. Our focus is on Agilent Technologies which is expected deliver revenue growth of negative 10% y/y and EBITDA of $496mn down from $578mn a year ago with a muted FY24 outlook expected as the company’s exposure to China is dragging down growth.

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar


Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (
- Analysis Disclaimer (
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000

Contact Saxo

Select region


The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.