Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 19 June 2024 Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 19 June 2024 Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 19 June 2024

Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 19 June 2024

Macro 3 minutes to read
Saxo Strategy Team

Key points:

  • Equities: AI rally continues with Nvidia becoming most valuable stock in the world
  • Currencies: Weaker USD on negative US retail sales, AUD stronger on hawkish RBA comments
  • Commodities: Crude oil remains in an uptrend
  • Fixed Income: US yields continue to decline on negative surprise in US retail sales
  • Economic data: EIA weekly crude and fuel stock report

The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.

In the news: Why Americans are not buying more EVs (FT), Chinese copper glut grows in sign of sluggish economy (FT), Nvidia’s 591,078% Rally to Most Valuable Stock Came in Waves (Bloomberg), EU to Slam France Over Budget Deficit, Adding to Political Woes (Bloomberg), Inside Citigroup’s Most Mysterious Business (WSJ)

Equities: Hong Kong equities are up 2.7% today on expectations of financial market reforms while futures are indicating a slightly higher open in European and US equities. The big news yesterday was Nvidia overtaking Microsoft as the most valuable company in the world with a 7.3% weight in the S&P 500 and a market value of $3.34trn. Ferrari is announcing its first electric vehicle model which will go on sale for at least $500,000. The ZEW survey yesterday was mixed adding some questions to the strength of the rebound in the European economy. There are no important macro or earnings events today to move markets, so the main focus will be whether momentum can extend further on the back of the current AI rally.

Macro: Yesterday’s US retail sales was softer-than-expected, and there were also downward revisions to the prior month sending some caution on the state of the consumer. Several Fed speakers spoke in a general tone of waiting for more data before cutting rates. Williams said that 3% inflation is not the new normal and the Fed will get inflation down to 2%, while both Barkin and Kugler were encouraged by the May inflation print. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment slightly rose to 47.5 (prev. 47.1, exp. 50), its highest figure since February 2022. However, optimism failed to spark due to current conditions deteriorating vs market expectations of improvement and the headline missing expectations.

Macro events (times in GMT): UK CPI (May) exp 2% vs 2.3% prior (06:00), EIA’s Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock report (14:30)

Earnings events: No important earnings today.

  • Thursday: Accenture, Kroger, Darden Restaurants, Jabil
  • Friday: FactSet, CarMax

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar

Fixed income: The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell to 4.22%, approaching its lowest level since late March, after a $13 billion auction of 20-year US government bonds. Key focus is still on the France-Germany 10-year spread which has pushed to elevated levels since Macron announced a snap election post his party’s embarrassing EU parliamentary election result. The French 10-year yield has come down a bit over the past couple of trading sessions reflecting the market is not overly worried about the French election outcome in July.

Commodities: Gold traded near 2,310, close to its 1-month low of 2,290, impacted by a strong dollar and reduced central bank demand in Asia. The People's Bank of China paused its aggressive gold-buying spree in May due to high prices. Oil continued its upward momentum from the previous day, as traders anticipate support for prices due to summer demand. Additionally, natural gas surged by 4.3%, ending a four-day decline, driven by hot weather forecasts boosting demand expectations. Iron ore trad around $107 per tonne, remaining close to the lowest level since April, as a set of economic data contributed to concerns about demand for ferrous metals from China.

FX: USD weakened modestly yesterday due to softer US retail sales and Federal Reserve officials advocating patience with rate cuts. The AUD is rising following a hawkish stance from the RBA, which kept the possibility of a rate hike open, while AUDNZD also climbed to 1.0850. The British pound wavered around 1.27 ahead of the UK CPI release and the Bank of England's rate decision. The euro traded near 1.0730 as French election concerns eased and Eurozone inflation met expectations. Meanwhile, the Swiss franc hit a three-month high, with USDCHF dropping to 0.8827, below the 200-day moving average, in anticipation of the Swiss National Bank meeting on Thursday.

Volatility: The VIX ended Tuesday at $12.30 (-0.45 | -3.53%). Short-term volatility indicators also declined, with the VIX1D at $9.51 (-0.34 | -3.45%) and the VIX9D at $11.12 (-0.82 | -6.87%). The SKEW index, which measures the perceived risk of outlier moves in the S&P 500, fell to 142.90 (-10.94 | -7.11%), indicating a reduction in perceived tail risk. Today is Juneteenth, a US holiday, so markets will be closed. VIX futures are currently at $14.300 (+0.005 | +0.03%). S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures show minimal movements: S&P 500 futures are at 5561.00 (+1.25 | +0.02%) and Nasdaq 100 futures are at 20217.75 (+21.50 | +0.11%). Yesterday's top 10 most traded stock options were Nvidia, Apple, Tesla, Advanced Micro Devices, Palantir Technologies, GameStop, Amazon, Taiwan Semiconductor, Micron Technology, and Dell Technologies.

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (
- Analysis Disclaimer (
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000

Contact Saxo

Select region


The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.