Global Market Quick Take: Asia – May 14, 2024

Equities: US Equities showed no clear direction even though 280 stocks closed lower and industrials and financials were the worst performing sectors as the latest from the New York Fed signaled inflation expectations ramping up to a 3.3% outlook, marking a high not seen since last autumn. The S&P 500 Index closed nearly flat, with most sectors ending in negative territory, and industrials taking the biggest hit. In contrast, the Nasdaq 100 Index rose marginally by 0.2%, thanks to advances in Apple and Tesla, which bolstered the index. Main focus is on meme stocks like GameStop and AMC that are making big moves with huge volume as GameStop experienced a dramatic 74% surge, marking its largest single-day increase since 2021. This notable rise spurred a wave of gains among other meme stocks, such as AMC Entertainment, amid rumors of a social media comeback by a prominent promoter of the stock during the previous meme-stock surge.

In the earnings arena, Tencent and Alibaba are slated to disclose their quarterly financial results later today, following the close of the Hong Kong market.

FX: The USD started the week on the backfoot, with DXY index slipping lower to test the 105 handle before recouping some of the losses. Focus today will be on Fed Chair Powell’s speech, although he is unlikely to change the rhetoric ahead of the April inflation print due on Wednesday. Cable took out the 200DMA at 1.2541 to reach highs of 1.2569 and the labor data will be on watch today along with comments from BOE Chief Economist Pill. Any weakness could prompt some dovish repricing, but GBP still remains a bigger play on dollar and equity risk sentiment. EURUSD also testing its 200DMA at 1.0790 after it reversed from highs of 1.0807. Ina  curious move, USDJPY broke above 156 again for the first time since the intervention two weeks back, despite BOJ tweaking its bond buying yesterday which helped to push up Japanese yields and despite dollar weakness. AUDUSD reversed gains to 0.6629 with eyes on Australia’s budget announcement later today as well as the likely China tariffs from the Biden administration. Immediate support at 100DMA around 0.6571. For more on our FX views, read this Weekly FX Chartbook.

Commodities: U.S. WTI crude oil futures closed above $79 per barrel, while Brent crude rose above $83 per barrel. Front Month Natural Gas for June delivery saw a gain of more than 5%, reaching above $2.38 per million British thermal units today (rose 19% MTD). Gold prices dropped due to profit-taking ahead of the PPI inflation data tonight, after reaching its highest level since April 22 on Friday. Copper futures rose above $4.71 per pound, reaching their highest level in two years, and remained above the $10,000 per tonne mark. This was driven by optimistic long-term demand and limited supply, raising concerns about potential shortages in the near future. Cocoa futures pulled back to approximately $8,400 per tonne, dropping from a weekly high of $9,300 reached on May 10th and reversing a significant portion of the 9% increase observed last week.

Fixed income: Treasury yields initially decreased in the early session but rebounded slightly after the release of higher NY inflation expectations data, similar to the University of Michigan Sentiment inflation expectations on Friday, and in anticipation of the Producer Price Index (PPI) report tomorrow. The 10-year yield reached a low of 4.46% before stabilizing within a narrow range below the earlier high of just under 4.5%. China is set to commence the sale of its initial portion of 1 trillion yuan ($138 billion) worth of ultra-long special sovereign bonds this week. The Central government will kick off a series of such bond sales by issuing 40 billion yuan in 30-year bonds on Friday.

Macro:

• Fed Vice-Chair Jefferson said that the economy has made a lot of progress and inflation has retreated, reiterating the central bank’s sticky dovish bent. He noted that labor market is resilient, and economy is in a solid position, so it may be important to look for further signs of inflation abating and keep policy restrictive until then.
• The NY Fed survey showed a pickup in 1-year inflation expectations to 3.3% after it was hovering around 3% in the last four months. Anticipated home price growth was also higher, and focus is turning to the US CPI release on Wednesday which will be a make-or-break release for the Fed and guide its next policy move. We discussed the outlook for US inflation and what it can mean for markets in the Macro podcast for this week.
• Japan’s April PPI came in at 0.9% YoY, a notch higher than 0.8% expected. On MoM basis, PPI was as expected at 0.3%, higher than last month’s 0.2%.

Macro events: UK Labour Market Report, Eurozone ZEW, Germany and Spain CPI (F), US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, US PPI, Fed Chair Powell speech, Australia Budget

Earnings: Tencent, Sony Group, Home Depot, Alibaba, Veolia Environnement, Euronext, Bayer, Rheinmetall, Walmart, Applied Materials, Cisco, Meituan, JD.com

News:

• GameStop soars in meme stock flashback as ‘Roaring Kitty’ reappears (FT)
• Apple gained 1.7% after finalizing a deal with OpenAI to integrate ChatGPT on the iPhone (Forbes)
• Anglo American turns down BHP’s improved $64b takeover bid (SMH)
• SoftBank posts $1.5bn quarterly profit as it shifts to AI investment (FT)
• Euro-Zone Economy Seen Picking Up Pace as Germany Heals (Bloomberg)
• Biden Aims to Show Voters He’s as Tough on China as Trump (Bloomberg)

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.