Summary: While Germany’s manufacturing PMI dampened sentiment in Europe, China’s policy support announcement helped energy and China ADRs outperform. Crude oil prices rose to 3-month highs as demand concerns eased, adding to supply tightness worries. Geopolitical and weather concerns continued to underpin food grain prices with wheat up 8% and corn up 6%. Earnings season heats up today and focus will be on Alphabet and Microsoft.
The S&P500 advanced 0.4%, driven by energy, financials, and real estate. Technology lagged, seeing the Nasdaq100 ticking up 0.1%. Energy stocks surged as the WTI crude rose more than 2% to a three-month high. Regional banks rebounded, with the SPDR S&P Regional Bank ETF (KRE:arcx) adding 2.5%. Tesla (TSLA:xnas) gained 3.5% after revealing strong global sales outside China and the US markets. The maker of Barbie dolls, Mattel (MAT:xnas) climbed 1.8% led by the strong box office performance of the film Barbie. IMAX surged 3.0% on the strong box office of Oppenheimer. On the other hand, Spotify (SPOT:xnys) plunged 4.5% after the headline of subscription price increases.
Treasuries pared the initial price gains (decline in yields) in European hours after the softer UK and EU PMI prints and reversed to a fall in price (rise in yields) throughout the New York session. A surprise increase in the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, a nearly 43k contract block sale in the 2-year note futures, and a slightly disappointing 2-year auction weighed on the market. Adding to the negative sentiment was a Wall Street Article by Nick Timiraos saying the Fed is not ready to declare victory on inflation. The 2-year yield rose 8bps to 4.92% while the 10-year finished the day 4bps cheaper at 3.87%.
The Hang Seng Index tumbled 2.2% as stocks of China property developers, as well as services companies got sold off badly. Country Garden Services (06098:xhkg), Country Garden (02007:xhkg), and Longfor (00960:xhkg) plummeted by 17.9%, 8.7%, and 8.5% respectively. The selloff since last Friday in bonds issued by Country Garden weighed on market sentiments. Likewise, the Hang Seng TECH Index declined by 2.2%, weighed down by Internet stocks. Baidu (09888:xhkg) paced the decline with a loss of 3.8% as other mega-cap Internet names shed more around 2%. Southbound flows from mainland investors registered a net buying of HKD9.8 billion. In A-shares, the CSI300 slid 0.4%. Northbound flows were net selling of RMB5.2 billion.
China’s Politburo held its much-awaited meeting on Monday and released the readout from the meeting after the market close. The Hang Seng Index futures surged 512 points or 2.7% overnight and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index jumped 4.3%. The ADRs of Alibaba and Meituan closed in New York more than 5% higher than their Monday Hong Kong closing.
The US dollar was higher on Monday as Treasury yields surged in the NY session. Earlier weakness in EUR and GBP underpinned by a set of disappointing July PMIs also boosted the dollar. EURUSD broke below 1.11 and the 1.10 may also be threatened if ECB makes a dovish shift today. GBPUSD also tested a break below 1.28 but was rejected. Japanese yen remained under pressure with USDJPY still above 141.50. Kiwi returned higher with NZDUSD back above 0.62 but fresh selling pressure emerged in the Asian morning. AUDUSD also erased gains to 0.6750+ seen after China’s announcement.
While crude oil prices have been supported lately due to supply tightness, demand concerns also eased now with proposed stimulus measures from China. Both WTI and Brent jumped over 2%, climbing to three-month highs and topping their 200-day moving averages. Demand is also rising amid the summer driving season. Week ahead brings a bout of tests but hawkish guidance surprises from either Fed or ECB remain difficult to expect.
CBOT wheat contracts finished Monday’s session with 8.6% gains, and other grain prices moved substantially higher as Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports and grain storage facilities continued on the Danube river. Corn prices were also 6% higher. Meanwhile, Europe’s crop monitoring service reduced its crop yield forecasts for this year’s harvest on concerns on dry and hot weather. Agri stocks and funds may remain in focus.
Eurozone PMIs came in weaker than expected, highlighting the significant growth risks in parts of the region. German July manufacturing PMI was shockingly low at 38.8 from 40.6 previously while France’s manufacturing PMI also dipped further into contraction to come in at 44.5 from 46 in June. Services PMIs held up slightly better but still in a declining trend. German services PMI slid to 52 in July from 54.1 previously while France services PMI was in contraction at 47.4. Overall, Eurozone manufacturing PMI for July was at 42.7 from 43.4 in June while services PMI slid to 51.1 from 52. These weak prints have put further focus on ECB meeting scheduled for this week and whether there will be any scope for them to guide for another rate hike after the one expected this week.
The recent Politburo meeting in China reflected a cautious approach to economic stimulus with limited commitments. One of the notable relatively bullish signals is the removal of the “housing is for living in, not for speculation” phrase from the readout of the meeting. Investors welcomed the omission and heightened the expectation of some relaxation on home buying restrictions in higher-tier cities. Another mildly bullish sign is the Politburo’s explicit recognition of the challenges faced by the economy including mentioning “insufficient domestic demand” and “some business enterprises are facing difficulties”. You can find more details and our takes on the investment implications of the Politburo meeting in this article.
US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI survey beat, rising to 49 from 46.3 and above expectations of 46.2. Services PMI missed, however, falling to 52.4 from 54.5 and beneath expectations of 54.1, albeit still remaining in expansionary territory. Overall, the composite fell, but remained in expansionary territory, printing 52 from the prior 53.2. While this may give further boost to the soft-landing narrative, it is worth noting that commentary hinted at business optimism about the year-ahead outlook deteriorating sharply to the lowest seen so far this year, and there were also some concerns about the stickiness of inflation.
As big tech companies prepare to release their earnings reports, there is a sense of caution in the air after Tesla and Netflix reported underwhelming results. The focus for today is on Alphabet (GOOGL:xnas) and Microsoft (MSFT:xnas). Alphabet is expected to experience a 13.7% Y/Y dip in revenue at USD 60.2 billion, but an increase of 14.6% Y/Y in Adjusted EPS at USD 1.44, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. On the other hand, Microsoft is anticipated to register a 7% Y/Y revenue growth at USD 55.49 billion and a 13% Y/Y increase in Adj. EPS at USD 2.55. Given the significance of these big tech companies in the broader equity market, these earnings reports will likely have implications for the market as a whole. For a more in-depth analysis of the potential impact of these upcoming earnings on the broader equity market, you can refer to Charu Chanana’s article for further information.
Additionally, General Electric, 3M and Visa will inform about the global economy while Acher-Daniels-Midland can tell investors more about the performance of agricultural commodities and Raytheon about defence.
Demand for Adidas's Yeezy sneakers exceeded expectations in their first online sale since the company ended its collaboration with Kanye West. This could help restore the brand image of Adidas and reduces the risk of a large writedown on its remaining stock. Adidas received orders worth over 508 million euros for 4 million pairs of unsold Yeezy shoes at the end of May and early June. Adidas reports earnings on August 3 and shares are down 47% from the 2021 peak.
For a detailed look at what to watch in markets this week – read our Saxo Spotlight.
For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.
The end of the road
Emboldened by surging crude oil prices, Saudi Arabia makes waves on the international stage, as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman manages to create a World Champions League, after buying the UEFA Champion League franchise.
As the world embraces GLP-1 obesity wonder drugs, the people next in line to get a prescription stop caring about dieting and exercising, figuring that the drug will later solve all of their weight-related health problems.
With the US budget deficit spiraling above 10% of the GDP, the government is desperate to foster demand for US Treasuries. Under intense pressure from the White House, Congress makes income from government bonds tax-free.
After a criminal group deploys the most deceptive AI deepfake ever seen, generative AI becomes a national security threat. With public distrust soaring, governments crack down with harsh new laws, puncturing the AI hype.
To fix the divergence in the global trade and financial system, the largest deficit countries unite to negotiate new world trade terms. For surplus countries, the reset of the global economic model is a painful adjustment.
As discontent with Biden and Trump rises to fever pitch, Robert F. Kennedy Jr sees his support rising inexorably in the polls. On November 5, Kennedy wins the US presidential election, ushering in a new era in US politics.
Stepping up Japan's economic transformation in 2024, PM Kishida brings in a host of populist policies to boost domestic demand. As the GDP growth rate hits 7%, the BoJ is forced to abandons its yield curve control policy.
As people wake up to how little tax Europe’s billionaires are actually paying, the EU Commission implements a wealth tax of 2%. The tax sends shockwaves through Europe's luxury industry, with luxury giant LVMH plunging 40%.
