Global Market Quick Take: Asia – April 26, 2024 Global Market Quick Take: Asia – April 26, 2024 Global Market Quick Take: Asia – April 26, 2024

Global Market Quick Take: Asia – April 26, 2024

Macro 6 minutes to read
Charu Chanana

Head of FX Strategy

Summary:  US stock futures have lifted higher as tech sentiment rebounded following stronger-than-expected earnings from Microsoft and Alphabet. This has reversed the pressure seen in Thursday’s session due to the sell-off in Meta and Q1 GDP bringing stagflation concerns back on table. Big focus today on Bank of Japan meeting with yen weakness accelerating, and the US March PCE data is also due later in the day. Earnings focus shifts to energy companies such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron.

 The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events. 

Equities: Wall Street rebounded from its lows after Meta’s 15% pre-market decline led to a gap lower at the open, but still closed in the red. US GDP data brought stagflation concerns back to the table with growth weaker but prices higher, and focus turns to March PCE data out today. Markets have pushed out expectations of Fed rate cuts for 2024 with first full rate cut now only priced in for December. Meta eventually ended the day over 10% lower, and IBM was down 8% on weak first-quarter earnings. Caterpillar fell 7% after the heavy machinery manufacturer reported a mixed first quarter of 2024, with earnings surpassing analysts' expectations but revenue falling short.

Tech sentiment, however, rebounded after the close with a strong set of earnings from both Microsoft and Alphabet, and US equity futures are pointing higher. This could help Japan’s Nikkei 225 to rebound after over 2% decline yesterday, but Bank of Japan announcement in the day ahead will be key. HK stocks have outperformed global equities this week, and HSI has cleared a key level at 17,200 – the high from January – and closed right at the 200DMA.

FX: Choppy price action seen in the US dollar which rose to test the 106 handle as Q1 US GDP report garnered a hawkish reaction on the back of hot PCE print, but risk sentiment improved later in the session as equities recovered from the lows, pushing dollar lower. USDJPY saw some volatility as Jiji Press report suggested BOJ bond purchases may be pruned at the announcement today, but reaction was limited, and pair remains near record highs. We discussed the JPY weakness, intervention risks, and BOJ meeting in detail in this article. Cable was back above 1.25 and AUDUSD is choppy around 0.65. AUDJPY has cleared the psychological barrier at 101, while CNHJPY has also reached record highs of 21.45 prompting yuan devaluation concerns.

Commodities: Crude oil prices rose slightly, recovering from an earlier drop as US GDP data prompted stagflation concerns. Focus likely to stay on macro ahead of PCE release today, and further acceleration in prices could send jitters on demand prospects. Copper stayed hot, rising back to fresh highs, while price action in gold and silver was choppy as Fed’s rate cuts continue to be pushed out from 2024 market pricing.

Fixed income: While the weaker headline GDP growth for Q1 from the US prompted a spike higher in Treasuries, price action shifted as the report was digested and greater concern seen coming through from the sticky Q1 PCE print paving the way for risks of an upside surprise from the March PCE data due today. There was little reaction to the 7-year auction, and Treasury yields ended 6-7bps higher as Fed rate cut expectations for 2024 were shifted further out.


  • US Q1 GDP data sparked fears of stagflation as growth slowed and came in weaker-than-expected, but the price index measures accelerated. Headline GDP growth eased to 1.6% from 3.4%, beneath the 2.4% forecast, while the Core PCE Prices for Q1 surged to 3.7% from 2.0%, above the 3.4% forecast, and above the top-end of analyst expectations.
  • PCE preview: Th hot Q1 PCE print is especially key ahead of the March PCE due later today, where consensus expects the core print to ease to 2.7% YoY from 2.8% in February and come in unchanged MoM at 0.3%. Market pricing for the Fed has shifted hawkish to expect the first full rate cut only in December.
    • If March core PCE came in above 0.4%, that will fuel risk aversion bringing equities lower, bonds higher, USD strength, Gold down and a risk of intervention from the Bank of Japan if they fail to stem the yen weakness at their meeting today.
    • If March core PCE, however, comes in at 0.3% or lower, that will be a relief for the markets but not enough of a reason to bring forward rate cut expectations. This could spell a relief rally with equities higher, bonds lower, dollar weaker and a recovery in yen and gold.
  • BOJ preview: The BoJ will conclude its 2-day policy meeting on Friday where the central bank is likely to maintain its policy settings after a rate hike in March. Big focus on comments around FX with yen at record lows. Intervention threats have been modest at best, given the strong USD could make any intervention futile. At this stage, a rate hike can do less damage than the risk of further devaluation of the yen, so a surprise action from the BOJ cannot be ruled out. At the very least, markets will be looking for a stronger language on FX suggesting that rate hikes could come forward if yen weakness persisted. Jiji press has reported overnight that BOJ is likely consider measures to reduce its government bond purchases, suggesting bond yields will be allowed to rise to 1% or higher. This is a two-way threat as higher JGB yields also push global yields higher, making it tough for the yen to rally.
  • Japan’s Tokyo CPI for April showed a sharp deceleration as headline prices eased to 1.8% YoY from 2.6% in March vs. 2.5% expected. Core CPI came in at 1.6% YoY and core-core was at 1.8% YoY from 2.4% and 2.9% in March respectively. While this may make a hawkish rhetoric from the BOJ difficult today, numbers carry a one-off impact from the start of education subsidy which is unlikely to be reflected in the nationwide CPI print due on May 24.

Macro events: BoJ Announcement and Outlook Report, CBR Announcement, Japanese Tokyo CPI (Apr), US PCE (Mar)

Earnings: Chevron, Exxon Mobil, AbbVie, TotalEnergies


For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q2

2024: The wasted year

01 / 05

  • Macro: It’s all about elections and keeping status quo

    Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.

    Read article
  • FX: The rate cut race shifts into high gear

    As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.

    Read article
  • Equities: The AI and obesity rally is defying gravity

    Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.

    Read article
  • Fixed income: Keep calm, seize the moment

    With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Is the correction over?

    Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.

    Read article

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (
- Analysis Disclaimer (
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000

Contact Saxo

Select region


The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.