Global Macro APAC Morning Brief Global Macro APAC Morning Brief Global Macro APAC Morning Brief

Global Macro APAC Morning Brief

Macro 1 minute to read
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Morning APAC Global Macro & Cross-Asset Snapshot

Happy Tue 24 Sep 2019 – APAC Global Macro Morning Brief

O/N, Levels & Thoughts:

So interesting comment overnight with Draghi saying, “Euro Exchange rate is not especially weak”. It’s not common to get either the ECB or Fed head, talking directly about the currency. He also suggested that the ECB should be open to MMT advocating that its closer to fiscal policy & should be overseen by governments.   

Again this call for more fiscal policy by central bank governors has been going on for years, bottom line is… monetary policy globally is getting progressively less bang for buck.

Whilst KVP, is not a proponent of spending as much as you want because it has zero effect on inflation, what would you rather see? Another $500bn or $1trn going to central bank balance sheets, that commercial & investment banks get to freely drink from (at tax payers expense & massive lost opportunity cost), or that $500bn to $1trn go into infrastructure projects that can generate jobs, growth & asset that enhances the country for decades?

Flash PMIs o/n were abysmal across the eurozone with both mfg & serv. Indicators missing across France, Germany & the block as a whole.

For Germany, mfg. came in at 41.4a 44.6e 43.5. Serv in at 52.5a 54.3e 54.8p.

For the EZ block as a whole mfg. was 45.6a 47.6e 47.0p & serv. Was 52.0a 53.1e 53.5p.

The German economy is seeing the first shrinkage of the private sector in over 6yrs. For the EZ as a whole… mfg. PMI is the worst in close to 7yrs. Net-net we don’t seem to have found a floor… monetary policy is not going to save or stabilize the EZ… it has to be fiscal policy… and for that it probably still has to get worse before it gets better.

The euro sold off on the data points and we are back to sub 1.1000, sitting around the 1.0990 lvls after a low of c. 1.0966. Bunds got a bid and are now tighter on yields back to c. -58bp

EQ were mixed across the Europe, yet EuroStoxx & FTSE100 bucked the trend to the upside. And it the US, the S&P was largely unchanged alongside the Nasdaq. The Russel2000 had an interesting +42bp outperformance. Early doors Asia yet, US equity futures are up c. +40bp to +50bp on the S&P & Nasdaq100.

There were additional comments by Fed officials linked to the money markets & repo spike last wk, yet nothing material. As a house view, we continue to think that what is happening is purely technical & not a signal similar to the GFC ripples in the money markets that was a signal of things to come.

Oct 7, according to US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin will be when China’s Vice Premier Liu He will be visiting the US. Mnuchin also flagged that US agri products are once again being bought by China.

Incredible India – So missed something big in this wk’s Macro Monday & that was the latest round of stimulus from the Indian government that came out on Fri last wk.

After a few neither here nor there move, this latest initiative with a $20bn tax cut is very much substantial in both scope, spirit & message it sends out – I will put out an overview on this later today or tmr.

Net-net it basically gives us earnings of +20% for 2yrs, and what other major economy in the current global economic backdrop can give you that same argument. Also according to MS, valuations relative to EM are back on the lower end of the range. They favour mid & small caps over large, value over growth, cyclicals over defensives specifically with consumer autos & industrials, they also like the large cap financials & believe that real estate names should also do well. Some India etfs that KVP would consider are INDA, INDY, EPI & SMIN



  • JP: Flash PMI 49.5e 49.3p
  • EZ: German IFO biz
  • UK: Public sector borrowing
  • US: House prices, CB Consumer confidence, Richmond Mfg. Index
  • Central Banks: Kuroda & Lowe due out on the tape… 13:30 & 17:55 SGT/HKT time
  • NZ: Early doors tmr (Wed Sep 25) we have TB figures due



Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (
- Analysis Disclaimer (
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000

Contact Saxo

Select region


The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.