Global Macro APAC Morning Brief

Macro 1 minute to read

Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Morning APAC Global Macro & Cross-Asset Snapshot


 

TGIF & Happy Macro Fri 27 Sep 2019

APAC Global Macro Morning Call



O/N, Levels & Thoughts:


Nothing new & material standing out to me overnight… expected steam around the whistle blower & the dem's move to start an impeachment investigation 

Asset Class Overview:

Continuing to see the grind up in the US Dollar Continue, DXY above 99 into the end of the wk is technically very bullish – it could mark the first wkly close on the DXY since May 2017, giving Trump & the Fed one more headache into the wkd

Spot gold 1505 was basically flat o/n, yet spot Silver 17.82 continued on the retreat with a -0.49% move. Brent Crude revered it previous day’s move with a +0.34% climb to 62.60. Copper 257.75 & Palladium 1643, went separate ways at -1.35% & +1.93% respectively

US equities closed down, despite a positive close across the board from their European cousins. We have the Dax up +0.44% at 12288 whilst the S&P 2977 & the Nasdaq100, 7772 were down -0.24% & -0.40%. VIX whilst up c. +14% over the last 4 trading days, was up +0.69% o/n to 16.07

Bond yields were a touch tighter, yet we are not too far off of the ranges we have been: USTs 1.69%, Bunds -58bp & JGBs -25bp

Central Banks:

As per consensus views, we saw 25bp cuts o/n from central banks out of Mexico & the Philippines, bringing those respecting rates to 7.75% & 4.00%

ECON:

The EZ saw an expansion in Money Supply at 5.7%a 5.1%e, private loans meanwhile were in-line at 3.4%. US final 2Q GDP reading was also in-line at 2.0%

Wholesale inventories missed climbed to 0.4%a vs. 0.1%e & the unemployment claims at 213K were not far off from the 210k that was expected

Today:

  • JP: Tokyo CORE CPI
  • EZ: German Import Prices, French Consumer Spending & Flash CPI
  • US: Durable Goods, Personal Spending, Personal Income, CORE PCE Price Index, UoM
    • Plus FOMC member Quarles @ 20:30 (SGT/HKT)


Next Week:

  • Key focus will be all about Oct 1st, China’s 70yr National anniversary. They will be looking to flex their muscle. Key thing is will we potentially see ripples out of trump (tariffs on Oct 1st) and/or renewed escalation from the protest movement in Hong Kong?
  • China will be out for Golden Week from Tue Oct 1st & will not be back in until Tue Oct 8th, so things will quiet down in North Asia
  • RBA rate decision on Tue Oct 1st – currently market is expecting them to remain on hold at 1.0%
  • We also have the RBI due next wk, hard to know which way they will do given the massive stimulus efforts from the government last Friday – yet one thing for sure is, they likely have a dovish skew from a policy perspective to be support of the governments efforts
  • Data wise it will be all about Final PMIs, US ISM / NFP / AHE, Aussie Retail Sales & Japan’s Tankan Survey, as well as UK’s GDP

 

Other:

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