APAC Global Macro Morning Brief – Happy Macro Fri 15 Nov 2019: Calm Before The… APAC Global Macro Morning Brief – Happy Macro Fri 15 Nov 2019: Calm Before The… APAC Global Macro Morning Brief – Happy Macro Fri 15 Nov 2019: Calm Before The…

APAC Global Macro Morning Brief – Happy Macro Fri 15 Nov 2019: Calm Before The…

Macro 1 minute to read
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Morning APAC Global Macro & Cross-Asset Snapshot

(Note that these are solely the views & opinions of KVP, they do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations of any kind.)

To see this wk’s Macro Monday click here

APAC Global Macro Morning Brief


Happy Macro Fri 15 Nov 2019: Calm Before The…

Dominance of sentiment O/N in Asia session was one of nervousness & bearishness, alongside greater concerns surrounding the escalating situation in HK - mainland China students going back home, schools closed till Sunday, rumors of curfews to be put in place for the wkd, rumors of homemade explosives, plus overall increase in conflict & violence [+350 petrol bombs, +7500 tear gas canisters] – and not just protesters vs. authorities, but also protesters vs. protesters, civilians vs. civilians, etc... 

For those that know Hong Kong, either as travelers or as home – you’ll know it’s a very efficient & compact city, which is a huge advantage – during the vast majority of time. Yet it’s a very easy city to disrupt as its littered with choke-hold points that disrupts the day to day of people that just want to get on with their lives – be it work, school, shopping, etc...

The risk is still for things to get worse – people have consistently under estimated the escalation over the previous few months – before they get better. One side has to give & its not going to be Beijing. Xi call for calm & following of the rule of law

KVP would retain his downside expression on Hang Seng that we flagged about a month back in Oct - initial poor timing by the way, as that coincided with the global equities melt up for much of Oct & most of early Nov, i.e. S&P 500 breaking up to new highs)

On the HSI, at these 26400 lvls - yes we are c. -5% / -6% from the 27800 lvls of last wk - yet I struggle to see a near-term move to 27,000 – however a move to 25,000 (c. -5%) could happen in a day – at which point we’d take profit on the bearish view

Granted, being long HSI today given all the news flow & sentiment, would be the epitome of putting on your "Captain Contrarian Cape". Don’t think its time yet… that may be a 2020 affair… yet no doubt a lot of HK listed names (both bonds & equities) have very little to do with the economy of Hong Kong & have quite high yields be it in dividends or coupons 

Whilst on the subject of Hong Kong, worth noting that two Tuesdays from now (Nov 26) should see the listing of the HK line of Alibaba shares – whilst a final strike has not been determined, it looks like there will be a ceiling price of HK$188

The shares & CFDs will be available to trade from day one on Saxo. Worth noting they crushed it again on Singles day, clocking almost USD 40bn in sales in a single day… Just to give you context, the much vaunted, 5 day black Friday in the US printed under 25 yards last year

The HK offering should raise c. USD 12bn & there will be 500m shares issues. YTD the current US listed BABA is up c. +33%, vs. AMZN +17% 


Meanwhile we had day II of Powell Testimony to Congress on the US economy – always seems to get more airplay than day one. Was interesting to see it kick off with the Chairman of the House Budget Committee (Mr. Yarmuth) from Congress advocating their support on the independence of the Fed & not in support of the attacks from the President

Powell continues to be comfortable on the growth of the US economy, which is a “star’ on a relative basis globally & is relaxed in regards to the risks of a recession. Note, intuitively the former should be the default state of nearly all market participants… recessions are notoriously hard to predict in the US & do not happen often…

Here is the link to the video of the Powell testimony event overnight. Sluggish growth abroad, trade developments & inflation pressures remaining muted – continued to be the same risks that we have heard often from the Fed of late 


O/N Econ Pulse:

US PPI in a t +40bp vs. expected 30bp

GER initial 3Q GDP reading of +1.0%a 0.8%e -0.1%r


Aus jobs data was abysmal -19.0k vs. expected +16.2k, plus downward revisions 12.5k p

China monthly growth data again missing across all three metrics of Fixed Asset Investments, Industrial Production & Retails sales..

US retails sales & wkly unemployment claims worse than expected

Wishing everyone a fantastic Friday ahead & even better more productive wkd





  • NZ: Biz NZ Mfg. Index 52.6a 48.8p (upwardly revised)
  • EZ: Final CPI 0.7%e/p Core 1.1%e/p, TB, Buba’s Weidmann @ 01:00 SGT/HKT (12:00 ET)
  • US: Empire State Mfg. Index, Import Prices, Cap. Util, IP, Biz. Inv.
    • FOMC’s Williams @ 21:00 SGT (08:00 ET), Brainard @ 21:30 SGT (08:30 ET)

  • CA: BoC’s Poloz speaking @ 10:45 SGT/HKT/CTS (21:45 ET)


Next Week: Theme will be around Flash PMIs, as well FOMC minutes

  • US: Building Permits, Housing Starts, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, CB Leading Index, Existing Home Sales, Flash PMIs, UoM
    • FOMC minutes @ 03:00 SGT (14:00 ET)

  • AU: RBA minutes, MI Leading Index, Flash PMIs
  • NZ: PPI & Milk auction, Credit Card Spending
  • CH: Data light wk
  • EZ: ECB Minutes, Flash PMIs, ECB Financial Stability Report
  • UK: House Prices, Public Sector Net Borrowing
  • CA: CPI, ADP, BoC Financial System Review, Retail Sales



Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/.

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
- Analysis Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/analysis-disclaimer/saxo-analysis-disclaimer)
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000

Contact Saxo

Select region


The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-au/about-us/awards

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.