Chart of the Week: US Employment Growth in Cyclical Sectors Chart of the Week: US Employment Growth in Cyclical Sectors Chart of the Week: US Employment Growth in Cyclical Sectors

Chart of the Week: US Employment Growth in Cyclical Sectors

Christopher Dembik

Head of Macroeconomic Research

Summary:  This is the new version of "Chart of the Week", including the macro calendar for the week ahead. Your feedback is always welcome.

Due to ongoing uncertainty, US companies have cut CAPEX but not jobs yet. The latest payroll published on last Friday is rather encouraging regarding the state of the US economy.

The headline was a big surprise for most market participants, as the NFP beat consensus at 128k vs 85k expected. The figure is even more impressive considering that the General Motors strike had a very negative impact on employment and subtracted 41k from the figure according to the BLS.

On the top of that, the net 95k upward revision for August and September tends to confirm that the economy is more resilient than most expected.

There is not much market slack as the number of “people not in the labor force but still wanting a job” is back to pre-crisis level.

Unless a macro accident happens in November, the latest NFP report supports the view that the Fed could pause in December, after three consecutive cuts.

However, it is not all good as there are still some signs of weakness, especially in more cyclical sectors (chart below):


  • Employment growth in construction is standing at 1.4% YoY, which is close to its lowest level since 2012;
  • Employment growth in temporary help services is in contraction, at minus 0.1%, the weakest since the end of 2016.

It is too early to talk about risk of contagion to other sectors and our view is still that the US labor market remains well-oriented in the short and medium term, despite the impact of the trade war and China’s slowdown.

Week ahead

Nov. 5: RBA to hold rates at 0.75%.

Nov. 6: Macron-Xi formal meeting. One of the main goals of Macron’s trip is to increase French agricultural exports to China. In other news, the Bank of Thailand may cut rates by 25bps to 1.25% as the THB real effective exchange rate is way too strong.

Nov. 7 to Nov. 20: Privatization of France’s national lottery games (FDJ, for Française des Jeux). It is part of the so called Pacte law aimed to privatize some key French entities and increase business growth and transformation of companies to face international competition. The FDJ is a very profitable company: revenue increased by an average of 5% over the past 25 years and, last year, it distributed 130 million euros in dividends. The French government’s purpose is to reduce its stake in the company from 72% to around 20%. It is considered by investors as the privatization of the year for the French stock market.

Nov. 11: General election in Spain. The most recent polls indicate there is no clear coalition emerging. The PSOE is still leading the polls, but support in its favor is slightly declining to levels close to April election, whereas the PP is gaining more support. Podemos is stable. As of now, the only viable coalition would be a grand coalition gathering the PSOE and the PP, which would be a first in Spain’s history.


Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (
- Analysis Disclaimer (
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000

Contact Saxo

Select region


The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.