Chart of the Week : Hong Kong Air Freight Volume Chart of the Week : Hong Kong Air Freight Volume Chart of the Week : Hong Kong Air Freight Volume

Chart of the Week : Hong Kong Air Freight Volume

Macro
CD
Christopher Dembik

Head of Macro Analysis

Summary:  Our 'Macro Chartmania' series collects Macrobond data and focuses on a single chart chosen for its relevance. It is published on a weekly basis. Today, we are looking at Hong Kong air volume freight as a proxy of the whole Chinese economy. The latest data was released less than two weeks ago, on 11 November.


Click to download this week's full edition of Macro Chartmania.

Today’s edition is about global air freight. We monitor air cargo growth statistics from major hubs in Asia and in Europe as they usually are sensitive to changes in the business cycle, especially in the manufacturing sector. This gives us interesting insights on the real state of the economy. On 11 November, the latest data was published for Hong Kong International Airport. This is the busiest air cargo hub in the world. Let’s put it that way, this does not draw a positive picture of the Chinese economy. The strict zero Covid policy continues to have a negative impact. After a strong rebound in 2021, freight volumes have been in contraction since February onwards. There is no hope for improvement anytime soon. The latest print for October shows a drop of 23.8 % year-over-year. This is close to the lowest historical point ever reached in January 2009 at minus 28.9 %. This is worse than during the first global lockdown of Spring 2020 (minus 13.1 %). The 3-month moving average, which smooths out the effects of month-to-month changes, was out at minus 23,2 % year-over-year in October. This is another confirmation that the zero Covid policy is a serious drag for the Chinese economy. But we doubt the country can exit from it anytime soon (even an easing of Covid-19 control measures seems a bit far away now that new cases are surging in several major cities). If we extrapolate figures from Taiwan (which is the latest example to exit zero Covid policy), China could expect 700 000 Chinese to die in five months. Of course, this is only a rough estimate. But it shows that exiting the zero Covid policy is not possible, for now. All of this also has global implications. While China contributed to about 30 % of global growth impulse before the pandemic (more than the combined contribution of the United States and the eurozone), it is now down at roughly 10 %. China is not anymore the global growth engine it used to be along with the United States. 

Disclaimer

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/.

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
- Analysis Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/analysis-disclaimer/saxo-analysis-disclaimer)
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000
Australia

Contact Saxo

Select region

Australia
Australia

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-au/about-us/awards

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.