Chart of the Week : Hong Kong Air Freight Volume Chart of the Week : Hong Kong Air Freight Volume Chart of the Week : Hong Kong Air Freight Volume

Chart of the Week : Hong Kong Air Freight Volume

Macro
CD
Christopher Dembik

Head of Macro Analysis

Summary:  Our 'Macro Chartmania' series collects Macrobond data and focuses on a single chart chosen for its relevance. It is published on a weekly basis. Today, we are looking at Hong Kong air volume freight as a proxy of the whole Chinese economy. The latest data was released less than two weeks ago, on 11 November.


Click to download this week's full edition of Macro Chartmania.

Today’s edition is about global air freight. We monitor air cargo growth statistics from major hubs in Asia and in Europe as they usually are sensitive to changes in the business cycle, especially in the manufacturing sector. This gives us interesting insights on the real state of the economy. On 11 November, the latest data was published for Hong Kong International Airport. This is the busiest air cargo hub in the world. Let’s put it that way, this does not draw a positive picture of the Chinese economy. The strict zero Covid policy continues to have a negative impact. After a strong rebound in 2021, freight volumes have been in contraction since February onwards. There is no hope for improvement anytime soon. The latest print for October shows a drop of 23.8 % year-over-year. This is close to the lowest historical point ever reached in January 2009 at minus 28.9 %. This is worse than during the first global lockdown of Spring 2020 (minus 13.1 %). The 3-month moving average, which smooths out the effects of month-to-month changes, was out at minus 23,2 % year-over-year in October. This is another confirmation that the zero Covid policy is a serious drag for the Chinese economy. But we doubt the country can exit from it anytime soon (even an easing of Covid-19 control measures seems a bit far away now that new cases are surging in several major cities). If we extrapolate figures from Taiwan (which is the latest example to exit zero Covid policy), China could expect 700 000 Chinese to die in five months. Of course, this is only a rough estimate. But it shows that exiting the zero Covid policy is not possible, for now. All of this also has global implications. While China contributed to about 30 % of global growth impulse before the pandemic (more than the combined contribution of the United States and the eurozone), it is now down at roughly 10 %. China is not anymore the global growth engine it used to be along with the United States. 

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-hk/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited
19th Floor
Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower
12 Queen’s Road Central
Hong Kong

Contact Saxo

Select region

Hong Kong S.A.R
Hong Kong S.A.R

Saxo Capital Markets HK is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract); Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged foreign exchange trading); Type 4 Regulated Activity (Advising on securities) and Type 9 Regulated Activity (Asset Management) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: 19th Floor, Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower, 12 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong

By clicking on certain links on this site, you are aware and agree to leave the website of Saxo Capital Markets, proceed on to the linked site managed by Saxo Group and where you will be subject to the terms of that linked site.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

Please note that the information on this site and any product and services we offer are not targeted at investors residing in the United States and Japan, and are not intended for distribution to, or use by any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.