Weekly FX Chartbook: The return of US exceptionalism Weekly FX Chartbook: The return of US exceptionalism Weekly FX Chartbook: The return of US exceptionalism

Weekly FX Chartbook: The return of US exceptionalism

Forex 5 minutes to read
Charu Chanana

Head of FX Strategy

Summary:  After a heavy week of dovish undertones from the key central banks last week, focus has returned to US exceptionalism coming in sharp contrast to the need for bringing forward rate cut bets from the likes of Bank of England or Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The Chinese yuan is also under scrutiny after flip-flop in PBOC fixing potentially as a result of yen weakness extending further. Earnings from property developers and banks in focus in China this week, and could have repercussions for CNH and AUD.


Dollar strength returned to the fore last week with a summer of rate cuts looking likely and prompting dovish repricing for other major central banks after a surprise SNB rate cut, but Gold still held up well.
Our FX Scorecard shows momentum turning negative for Silver and sterling, while USD strength could become the key theme again.
Forex COT to the week of March 19 indicated non-commercial flows heavily tilting towards a long dollar positioning ahead of the FOMC meeting. This was led by a 35% reduction in EUR longs and 24% reduction in GBP longs. In addition, shorts in JPY, AUD and CHF increased further.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Other recent Macro/FX articles:

25 Mar: Global Market Quick Take - Asia
22 Mar: Swiss National Bank’s bold move will kickstart the G10 rate cut cycle
20 Mar: Thematic Podcast: Japan's route to abolish negative interest rates
20 Mar: Japan’s exit from negative rates: Implications for the economy, yen and stocks
19 Mar: FOMC rate decision: How to trade the event
18 Mar: Macro & FX Podcast: Central bank meetings all over
18 Mar: Weekly FX Chartbook: Heavy central bank focus as FOMC, BOJ, BOE, SNB, RBA meet
14 Mar: FOMC vs. BOJ: Who moves the Yen?
12 Mar: Dampening equity sentiment could test GBP resilience
11 Mar: US inflation report: How to trade the event
11 Mar: Macro & FX Podcast: Have soft landing hopes turned into expectations?
11 Mar: Weekly FX Chartbook: JPY eying wage talk headlines and US CPI
6 Mar: Bitcoin fever is running high, again
5 Mar: FX & Macro Podcast: US jobs data, China's "Two Sessions" & Super Tuesday
28 Feb: Navigating Japanese equities: Strategies for hedging JPY exposure
23 Feb: Nvidia momentum spills over to FX markets
21 Feb: Central bank divergence on the radar: Hawkish RBNZ, Dovish BOC and SNB
19 Feb: Macro & FX Podcast: How the debate about the US economy has shifted
15 Feb: Swiss Franc’s bearish view gets more legs
14 Feb: Sticky US inflation could make dollar strength more durable
9 Feb: Japanese Yen is throwing a warning
8 Feb: FX 101: USD Smile and portfolio impacts from King Dollar

Disclaimer

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/.

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
- Analysis Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/analysis-disclaimer/saxo-analysis-disclaimer)
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000
Australia

Contact Saxo

Select region

Australia
Australia

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-au/about-us/awards

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.